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1/n The 38k recoveries reported today is a result of IATF Res 60, which adopts a time-based definition of recovery already in place in a lot of countries - if you did not require hosp & it has been more than 14 days since your symptoms started, then you may be tagged as recovered
2/n The definition of what a COVID-19 recovery is... very tricky. Do we consider just the end of the infectious period + improvement of clinical condition? Or do we consider the growing body of scientific evidence that seems to suggest COVID-19 also has longer-term effects?
3/n The definition of what a recovery varies widely across countries, and I actually don't like those charts that compare "active"/recovered/died cases across countries if you wanna drill down to the numbers because our region is so diverse in terms of health systems capacity.
4/n I'm also not saying that the Philippines isn't underperforming (in fact, when adjusting for these variables on health system capacity, we will probably end up being the worst)
If you want to think like an epidemiologist, think about the "active" cases instead.
If you want to think like an epidemiologist, think about the "active" cases instead.
5/n If DOH tagged as recoveries those cases from as late as June (I would assume based on this time-based definition), it means that at least 22k cases exist in July. Even if you calibrate your estimate and it's 22k in June and July, either way, these are terrible numbers.
6/6 The remaining "active" case # highlight what is glaringly obvious about this pandemic in the country - things have definitely gotten worse. And beyond that, I am still trying to square the critical utilization numbers, because it doesn't align with the confirmed case totals.
FTR I'm gonna defend to death the data managers who work with/for DOH because they work day and night in a surveillance system that is far from perfect.
At the end of the data, this is a political decision. Singilin natin leaders natin.
At the end of the data, this is a political decision. Singilin natin leaders natin.
