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Reading this, there's been a lot of focus on the shots per game allowed by Villa pre and post lockdown, so I had a look at the xG difference. Thread! #AVFC https://twitter.com/guardian_sport/status/1288520914879909888
So before the lockdown, we were 19th in the xPTS table, with 34.81 xG, 61.47 xGA and 23.03 xPTS, above only mega overachievers Newcastle. That averages to a 31.3 point season at 0.82 xPTs/game, with 2.20 xGA/game #AVFC
Post lockdown, it's a completely different story. Despite only accumulating 10 actual points, our xPTS shot up from 0.82 xPTS/game to 1.42/xPTS/game, which would put us on track for a 54 point season! That would put us right up with Sheffield United and Burnley! #AVFC
The improvement in the defence is ridiculous. The xGA/game plummeted from 2.20 to just 1.01. That would put us as the FOURTH BEST DEFENCE IN THE LEAGUE!!! #AVFC
We were also unlucky in front of goal, scoring 3 fewer than we were predicted to, although our xG/game was down from 1.24 to 1.03. Clearly, our newfound defensive solidity came at a cost, but giving up 0.21xG/game for an improvement of over 1 xGA/game is well worth it #AVFC
Caveats: the sample size for the post lockdown "season" is only 10 games cf. the 28/29 for the pre-lockdown period. Also, worth considering that some of the teams in the league had kinda given up towards the end of this period, the likes of Everton having little to play for #AVFC
TL,DR: #AVFC's defensive improvement is 100% legit, translating to a pretty remarkable improvement not only in real form but also predicted form. It came at the cost of attacking threat but the net cost of the better defence more than paid for itself! (Data from understat)
