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In 2019/20 #LFC xG2 allowed (that is shots/headers on target & ranked by difficulty based on location *&* post shot attributes) was 30 xG. They degraded their purely location based #xG by 27%. @InfogolApp 1/7
That's the best defensive degradation of xG I have in PL records from 214/15. If you sim all 201920 games based on xG2 rather than location based xG, then #LFC win the title around 86% of the time, compared to #MCFC winning most if it is based on usual location based xG. 2/7
. #LFC has also improved their offensive xG2 compared to location based xG, but by a much smaller margin, just 6%. 3/7
Only nine teams since 2014/15 have degraded xG by more than 10% & gone on to have a subsequent PL season. In that subsequent season, on average they *under* performed xG2 degradation by 2%. It's hard to maintain. 4/7
Teams who turn location based xG in 10% or greater xG2 offensively also managed to hang onto just 2% of that improvement in the subsequent season. 5/7
These are generalities. #AFC kept the xG to xG2 offensive improvement for four season from 2014/15. But generally xG 2 extremes slip back to less extremes in subsequent years.
So can #LFC 's defenders continue to pressurise attackers into taking poorer on target shots than is generally the case based on the shooting/heading locations they found themselves in during 2019/20? 7/7
