Thread by @GidMK, Something that has been annoying me all pandemic is this idea of [...]

Health Nerd

GidMK

Something that has been annoying me all pandemic is this idea of ICU beds and capacity

It's often painted as having [x] number of beds, all of which are available for COVID-19

Thanks not really how it works, sadly 1/n

2/n So, for example, the United States had ~3 ICU beds per 10,000 people pre-pandemic

Often, that's assumed to mean that things would be fine as long as COVID-19 didn't put more than 3/10000 people in ICU

3/n But that's actually VASTLY overestimating the number of ICU beds available on any given day

It's looking at TOTAL capacity instead of AVAILABLE capacity

4/n The thing about ICUs - as with any hospital bed - is that you don't add space unless you need it already

This makes sense; you don't want to have staff hanging around doing nothing, or expensive medical equipment that you don't need

5/n Now, ICU capacity varies over the course of the year. Some hospitals have more space, some less. But most ICUs are usually somewhere between 80-90% full on any given day

6/n In your average winter, they're more like 95-100% full on any given day, with many hospitals operating at >100% usual capacity for weeks at a time

7/n So when we talk about overwhelming hospital capacity, it's not the enormous wave that is often portrayed

Often, a few extra people in ICU tips the balance

8/n This is also why it's so hard to increase capacity. You can't just magic up trained ICU staff from nowhere, and you don't want untrained people in an ICU

9/ So on any one day, you'd expect an ICU of, say, 20 beds to have 16-18 patients already - heart attacks, strokes, recent surgeries, accidents etc

Add just a few more from COVID-19 and, well...

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