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(1/9) Good news about COVID-19 suppression in Hong Kong, today we estimate that the daily reproductive number Rt dropped below 1 on 22 July, around a week ago https://covid19.sph.hku.hk/
(2/9) There is a delay in estimates of Rt due to a 10-day lag between infections and laboratory confirmations, including an average of 5 days incubation period (time from infection to illness onset) and another 5 days on average between illness onset and laboratory confirmation.
(3/9) Since Rt fell below 1 on 22 July, we would expect the epidemic curve of cases by illness onset to reach a peak approximately 5 days after that (27 July), and the daily number of laboratory-confirmed cases to reach a peak within 7-14 days after 22 July.
(4/9) Our previous epidemic in March was successfully suppressed by the implementation of work-from-home for civil servants and private businesses, closing bars and leisure facilities, and enhancing social distancing in restaurants https://twitter.com/bencowling88/status/1281480409822326785
(5/9) These measures were re-implemented on 20 July, and are clearly having an effect https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3093795/hong-kong-third-wave-more-100-confirmed-and
(6/9) Of course, if we were now to relax, transmission could resurge. If the measures started on 20 July are sustained, we should see daily case numbers drop to zero within around 4-6 weeks. We may also need two weeks of zero cases before deciding measures can be relaxed.
(7/9) Similar points made in this article last night https://hk.appledaily.com/local/20200729/RADOQXQKSMQU7BMTKL7JFVAJQM/
(8/9) One final thought, asking people to eat lunch in heat shelters instead of restaurants, from today, may not help to suppress COVID-19. Many restaurants are struggling to survive. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3095175/coronavirus-hong-kongs-workers-have-lunch-parks
(9/9) Every government in the world is looking for the right combination of public health measures that have a greater effect on suppressing COVID-19 with a lesser economic impact. We all recognise it is a difficult balance.
