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1. Here is a GREAT analysis out from the most talented female political scientist in the entire country @vavreck & Christopher Warsaw in @UpshotNYT that shows that COVID deaths correlate w declines in support for Trump AND GOP senate & house candidates. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/28/upshot/polling-trump-virus-election.html?referringSource=articleShare
2. And keep in mind this is w/o campaigns running ads, connecting Trump to the pandemic and the Republican incumbent to Trump. In other words, this is the natural effect. Certainly something the @dccc @dscc @prioritiesUSA @TheDemocrats @jomalleydillon would want to take note of
3. BC it is quantitative evidence of the exact argument I was making in this thread. The authors say this analysis defies the "all politics is national" adage. Well, the deaths are indeed local. But blaming the incumbent Rs for it? That's ALL nationalized politics. And its clear
4. that voters are angry and already primed to make a connection between Trump and his Republican Party counterparts. This is suggestive that linking incumbents to Trump & making the election a referendum on Trump, which is how @ProjectLincoln would do it, would tap right into a
5. vein or emotion already running through the electorate. And as @MichaelSteele will tell you from personal experience with his run as RNC chair and Obamacare backlash- that's the easiest case to make. https://twitter.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1288570675603677191
