There has been lots of attention on the question of whether the #CERB should be ended because it prevents ppl from working. But let’s take a moment to ask what will happen to Cdns if the CERB is not extended and #EI is not reformed. 1/

(This is a long thread, but please bear with me because the details will matter for a lot of people come September.) 2/

So you’ve lost your job or your hours of work due to the pandemic or you can’t work because of caregiving responsibilities. (We’ll leave aside the question of sickness benefits for the moment, because that takes us into the rabbits’ warren of STD, LTD, & public disab. plans.) 3/

The obvious first stop is EI. But if you’re self-employed, a student, or a recent graduate, you probably don’t qualify. If you’re a seasonal worker or a precarious worker, there’s a good chance you don’t qualify. 4/

If you’re not at work due to caregiving responsibilities but you haven’t been officially laid off, guess what: you don’t qualify. 5/

Prior to the pandemic, fewer than 4 in 10 unemployed Cdns were receiving EI benefits. Access will probably go up b/c of the sheer number of newly unemployed Cdns, but keep in mind that during the Great Recession, the rate only increased to 5 out of 10 unemployed Cdns. 6/

Let’s be generous and say that the rate will increase this time to 6 out of 10 unemployed Cdns. What do the other 4 out of 10 do? Where do you turn if you can’t get EI? 7/

The next backstop is provincial #SocialAssistance programs. But just because you’ve lost your income doesn’t mean you qualify for social assistance. There are asset and income limits you need to meet in order to qualify for social assistance. 8/

Assets refer to any cash you have, your bank accounts, stocks, bonds, and GICs, any property you own other than your principal residence (which could include a timeshare), a vehicle if you own more than 1, and business assets if you are self-employed. 9/

Every province or territory has a level of assets that are allowed. For a single individual, this ranges from $300 in the NWT to $10,000 in ON. Most P/T are in the $1000-$4000 range. For a couple with 2 kids, it ranges from $560 in NWT to $16,000 in ON. 10/

There are also some exemptions for assets required for employment, such as a second car for a family member to take to work or “tools of your trade.” Locked in RRSPs, RESPs, and pensions are excluded. 11/

If you have any assets beyond this limit, you need to sell them, cash them in, or spend them before you qualify. In some provinces and territories, caseworkers can also decide that your residence or your car is more expensive than you actually need. 12/

Next comes the income test. Workers’ compensation, EI, child support, pensions, gifts from parents and family members, all counts as income. So does any interest you earn on whatever tiny amount of $ you have in your bank account. 13/

Most provinces allow a single person to “earn” between $100 to $200 before clawing back support; for families, the cap is set at around $300 to $400. 14/

So you’ve spent down your savings, sold off your second car, and you qualify for social assistance. But they don’t just keep sending you a cheque every month. You have to do a few things to remain eligible. You have to be actively looking for employment. 15/

You have to meet regularly with a caseworker, report any changes in your family status and income, and your caseworker can require you to participate in “employment assistance” programs (counseling, training, etc.) 16/

And in return for jumping through all of these hoops, how much do you get? The amounts vary a bit depending on what kind of housing you have, whether you have kids, and whether you qualify for any health-related supplements. 17/

But the basic amount ranges from $564 a month in NB to $1,405 a month in YK for a single person with no dependents. For a couple with kids, the basic amount ranges from $995 a month in NB to $2,828 in YK. 18/

Now certain federal benefits are exempt from social assistance clawbacks, including the GST credit and the Cda Child Benefit. The GST credit will add, on average, about $300 to a single person’s annual income and just under $900 to a family of four. 19/

But you can understand quickly how a) nobody can survive for long on these amounts, especially single adults without kids and b) this puts a lot of pressure on workers to accept unsafe working conditions just to have a job. 20/

So to summarize, likely 4 in 10 unemployed Cdns (or more) won’t qualify for EI; some portion of them won’t qualify for SA either; and those that do will be mired in poverty that will be difficult to work their way out of once this crisis is over. 21/

If the federal government wants to avoid a significant increase in poverty and wants to avoid pushing workers into unsafe working conditions, they need to do one of three things: 1. Extend the CERB until the crisis is truly over; 22/

2. Reform #EmploymentInsurance immediately; or 3. Introduce a #basicincome set high enough to lift Canadians out of poverty. /End

@CQualtro @Bill_Morneau