This ‘haha, look how wrong this was’ reaction echoes ex post evaluations of analysts who told AT&T there was no market for mobile and IBM there is no market for computers. Prediction is hard though, especially about the future (variously attributed).

But was the E(x) wrong? https://twitter.com/jimpethokoukis/status/1231245913764638720

And maybe more importantly, was it wrong given the state of knowledge at the time? Strategy is an empirical discipline. And it a discipline that has only been around for a few generations now. The flagship journal is from the mid-80s. We have and continue to learn a great deal.

Moreover, the nature of competition itself has been transformed by some of the very dynamics Amazon helped pioneer. The empirical phenomena of the discipline themselves, in other words, have evolved - were in flux at the time of the anecdote - as a result of the actions of Bezos.

It’s totally justified to suggest that analysts need a bit more epistemic humility. But decisions are always made under conditions of Knightian Uncertainty. Success always look problematic ex ante. If it didn’t, there wouldn’t be an opportunity. This is the market process.