Thread by @fpl_vegan, HOW TO CATCH PLAYERS COMING INTO FORM Tired of bringing in a [...]

HOW TO CATCH PLAYERS COMING INTO FORM

Tired of bringing in a player who hauls only for them to blank for 3 weeks?

Or sick of selling an underperformer only to see them punish you with a hat trick?

Then this thread is for you......

As part of my post-season analysis I’ve tried to find out how our favourite assets score their points. I’ve looked at about 40 players and tallied;

How many gameweeks they returned in.

How these returns have been distributed. i.e in long streaks of returns or drip fed.

I hoped to identify which players are:

Good for long periods of multiple GWs safe in the expectation that they’d deliver points in line with their season average.

Good for short periods where there is evidence to suggest their returns will exceed their season average.

The stats I looked at were:

Total number of returns.

Total number of streaks (i.e. returns in 3 consecutive GWs = 1 streak).

Points for attacking returns (so including goals, assists and bonus points but excluding appearance points).

I then used this data to produce;

Average streak - How many games a player can be expected to return in each streak.

Average return - how many points they deliver when they do return.

Points per streak - how many points they deliver between blanks.

Before I present the findings, I should highlight some (possibly important) limitations of my findings.

It’s a small sample size.

It’s only MIDs and FWDs as I don’t think DEFs are subject to the same levels of fluctuation due to their points coming from team performances.

I’ve manually copied the data from numerous sources including http://understat.com and the @OfficialFPL app. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that there are some errors there.

It ignores the debate around whether form actually exists.

Now to the results.....

SALAH

Average streak: 1.58 games

Average return: 6.58 PPG

Points per streak: 10.42

MANE

Average streak: 1.91 games

Average return: 5.29 PPG

Points per streak: 10.09

KDB

Average streak: 1.83 games

Average return: 5.91 PPG

Points per streak: 10.83

STERLING

Average streak: 1.78 games

Average return: 7.38 PPG

Points per streak: 13.11

MAHREZ

Average streak: 1.7 games

Average return: 4.82 PPG

Points per streak: 8.2

MADDISON

Average streak: 1.67 games

Average return: 3.9 PPG

Points per streak: 6.5

BRUNO

Average streak: 3.67 games

Average return: 5.55 PPG

Points per streak: 20.33

Note: very small sample size but astounding numbers regardless.

SON

Average streak: 2.43 games

Average return: 5 PPG

Points per streak: 12.14

RASHFORD

Average streak: 1.8 games

Average return: 5.89PPG

Points per streak: 10.6

Note: I expect Rashford to be reclassified so his points have been adjusted.

MOUNT

Average streak: 1.11 games

Average return: 5 PPG

Points per streak: 5.56

PULISIC

Average streak: 2.6 games

Average return: 4.38 PPG

Points per streak: 11.4

ADAMA

Average streak: 1.43 games

Average return: 4.7 PPG

Points per streak: 6.71

GREALISH

Average streak: 1.4 games

Average return: 4.14 PPG

Points per streak: 5.8

KUN

Average streak: 2.8 games

Average return: 5.21 PPG

Points per streak: 14.6

MARTIAL

Average streak: 1.8 games

Average return: 4.78 PPG

Points per streak: 8.6

Note: see Rashford

AUBA

Average streak: 1.9 games

Average return: 5.11 PPG

Points per streak: 9.7

VARDY

Average streak: 3.17 games

Average return: 5.63 PPG

Points per streak: 17.83

KANE

Average streak: 1.88 games

Average return: 5.2 PPG

Points per streak: 9.75

INGS

Average streak: 2.1 games

Average return: 4.48 PPG

Points per streak: 9.4

JIMENEZ

Average streak: 2.63 games

Average return: 4.1 PPG

Points per streak: 10.75

That’s most of the popular assets but the screenshots below show a larger sample of players.

JIMENEZ Average streak: 2.63 gamesAverage return: 4.1 PPGPoints per streak: 10.75That’s most of the popular assets but the screenshots below show a larger sample of players.

As you can see there is a difference in how players scored points this season.

At one end of the spectrum are players like Salah, KDB and Martial who scored their points in dribs and drabs pretty consistently. Returning for a week of two then blanking the next one or two.

At the other end of the spectrum are players like Vardy, Son, Pulisic & Jimenez who returned multiple GWs in a row before going on similar runs of blanks - ‘streaky’ players.

SO WHAT TO DO WITH THESE FINDINGS

This is the important part. I think this data shows that chopping and changing between players like Salah & KDB is somewhat futile as their returns are fairly consistent so it’s quite a waste of your precious free transfers.

Next season I’ll be having a few of the consistent attacking players then trying to target the streaky players with my FTs to get on board at the start of their streaks. If you can be fairly confident a player is going to return 3 weeks in a row, you can even miss his 1st return.

I think this reflects conversations I often see on twitter where people complain of selling Salah and getting punished or never being able to catch Son’s run of good form.

Well done

and thank you

for reading this far. I hope the information I’m trying to convey is clear and you find it somewhat useful. I’d be interested to hear how useful people think this type of analysis is.

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