Was school closure in Spring 2020 associated with reduced #COVID19 incidence & mortality?

Check out our paper in @JAMA_current w/ @KathyAugerpeds @patrickwbrady @HartleyDM @JoThomsonMD @stats_hall https://bit.ly/3fhnEms 

We looked at association of school closures overall this past Spring & timing of school closures by state and each states’ subsequent #COVID19 incidence & mortality

We accounted for other preventive measures, termed non-pharmaceutical interventions or NPIs
Stay-at-home orders
Non-essential business closure
Restaurant/bar closure
Large gathering bans

We accounted for #COVID19 infection or mortality risk factors at state level
Obesity
Age <15 y
Age >65 y
# nursing home residents/1000 people
Daily COVID testing rates
Social vulnerability index

Results
School closure associated w/
-62% decrease per week in COVID incidence
-58% decrease per week in in COVID mortality

Our models estimate that school closure prevented 1.37 million cases of #COVID19 & 40,600 COVID-associated deaths in the weeks following closure

We then divided states into 4 groups/quartiles based on #COVID19 incidence when schools closed
Earlier school closure associated with a greater decrease in infection rate than later school closure

States with the earliest school closures (lowest quartile of #COVID19 incidence) had 129 fewer cases per 100,000 population & 1.5 fewer deaths per 100,000 population than states with latest closures (i.e., states that didn't close schools till incidence was relatively )

Our study highlights important role of public health interventions in mitigating the #COVID19 pandemic

@AmerAcadPeds & other national groups provide guidance on safe re-opening of schools & sports
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