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In the first of what will (hopefully) be a series of post-season reviews, today I’m going to look at what happened in the nine games since the Premier League resumed.
To remind yourself where we were on 20th June, have a look at this thread: https://twitter.com/WolvesAnalytics/status/1274302095395561473
To remind yourself where we were on 20th June, have a look at this thread: https://twitter.com/WolvesAnalytics/status/1274302095395561473
Essentially, we were in a good position – the fifth best team in the league with a fair few games left to play against teams worse than us. Expectations were high.
Given the feeling of disappointment around Wolverhampton since Sunday night, you would think the performances had dropped off a cliff – we were playing at a level of 1.86 pts per match pre-lockdown, that dropped to 1.78 per match since the resumption.
That form is bettered only by four teams. Unfortunately, two of them were Manchester United and Chelsea, two of the teams we were looking to catch. To a large extent, if clubs with their resources are getting more than 2 points a match, there is not a lot we can do about this.
Leicester finished 3 points ahead of us – we managed to claw back 7 points on them in 9 games. Catching them was always incredibly unlikely, even taking into account their horrific collapse.
Leicester’s underlying numbers were virtually identical to Tottenham’s, who somehow won 18 points from 9 games. It is important to remember that Spurs were only 2 points behind us when the break happened – being overtaken is annoying, but not something to be embarrassed about.
Tottenham’s results were fairly flukey. In just 9 games, they scored 4.5 goals more and conceded 2.5 goals less than the average team would have – that’s a swing of 7 goals in 9 matches more than the average team. They hit a hot streak, both at the back and upfront.
In particular, Harry Kane had a resurgent return to form. Prior to June, he had 0.32 xG per 90 (less than both Jota and Jimenez). This almost doubled post-lockdown, and was the eighth highest in the league (for players with a minimum of 200 minutes).
Kane’s goalscoring form was in direct contrast to ours, with us barely creating one goalscoring chance per match (Spurs’ were actually worse than us, highlighting their hot streak)
There was a clear drop off in the attacking performances upon the return. Jota and Jimenez in particular struggled, ranking at 39 (Jota) and 51 (Jimenez) for non-penalty expected goals per match. Only Podence has emerged from the last 9 games with any real attacking credit.
But where the attack floundered, our defence flourished.
Our 0.67 expected goals against per 90 is the best in the league, and only Manchester City conceded fewer actual goals.
Our 0.67 expected goals against per 90 is the best in the league, and only Manchester City conceded fewer actual goals.
This is a result of the change in style post-lockdown. The previous tweet shows how our number of shots taken declined by 18%, but perhaps more strikingly our passes per defensive action (PPDA) increased from 12.84 to 15.89 (see next tweet for PPDA explanation)
(Passes per Defensive Action (PPDA) is essentially how many passes a team allows the opposition to make before doing anything defensively. It’s a useful tool to measure how much teams press – the less you press, the more passes you allow the opposition to have).
I asked pre-resumption what approach we should take. Only 3% suggested that we should conserve energy for the Europa League - did Nuno has take the view that we had 13 games left of the season, rather than 9 like most other teams? https://twitter.com/WolvesAnalytics/status/1274237295550496773
The low tempo football certainly hindered our attack, but we were well organised enough to be excellent in defence. This approach was always going to mean that a little luck going against us would hit us, in a way it doesn’t to teams who create more chances.
But it was always going to be tough to make up 2 pts on Manchester United, and 5 on Chelsea. This became nigh on impossible once they were running at 2 points a match. Having Tottenham leapfrog us is annoying, but took an incredible run of form/luck.
Perhaps it’s a missed chance – we can look back at anaemic attacking performances against Sheffield United and Chelsea and wonder where a couple of extra points would get us. But we’d have needed to take 20 points from 9 games to finish 5th, or 24 to finish in the top-4.
We took 13 pts from the first games against these sides.
This is more points than we won in any 9 game period this season (previous best 19), and runs only achieved 6 times this season (if you take Liverpool’s first 31 games as one run…). In short, not easy to do.
This is more points than we won in any 9 game period this season (previous best 19), and runs only achieved 6 times this season (if you take Liverpool’s first 31 games as one run…). In short, not easy to do.
Ultimately, the previous nine games were not the end of the season.
Fingers crossed, we are in a position to attack what could be the most important 4 game streak in the club's history.
Fingers crossed, we are in a position to attack what could be the most important 4 game streak in the club's history.
