Read on Twitter
The #COVID19 case fatality rates (CFR) - number of deaths as a percentage of confirmed infections - for places affected early on are:
Hubei,
6.6%
5.4%
14.3%
10.2%
16.5%
15.2%
Contrast this with some recent hotspots:
3.4%
3.6%
2.3%
1.6%
Hubei,
6.6% 5.4% 14.3% 10.2% 16.5% 15.2%Contrast this with some recent hotspots:
3.4% 3.6% 2.3% 1.6%
Here is a comparison of CFRs for Asia and Europe (Only those countries with over 1000 cases. Yemen, which has the highest by far, also excluded).
And here's the rest of the world (again only countries with over 1000 cases).
A recent sero-survey conducted in Mumbai of almost 7000 people suggests an actual infection fatality rate (IFR) for #COVID19 might be as low as 0.05%-0.1%.
https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/mumbai/higher-share-in-slums-exposed-to-virus-than-in-societies-mumbai-sero-survey-6527865/
https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/mumbai/higher-share-in-slums-exposed-to-virus-than-in-societies-mumbai-sero-survey-6527865/
Interestingly, the country with the lowest CFR (among those with over 1000 confirmed cases) is Singapore, which has high rates of testing, good data, contact tracing, etc.
Singapore's CFR is 0.05%, essentially the estimated IFR derived from the study in the previous tweet.
Singapore's CFR is 0.05%, essentially the estimated IFR derived from the study in the previous tweet.
I've read three explanations for the variation:
1. More tests in later cases (suggesting actual numbers of those infected earlier was much higher).
2. Demographics (older populations worse off).
3. Greater awareness, quicker treatment, better preparation compared to earlier.
1. More tests in later cases (suggesting actual numbers of those infected earlier was much higher).
2. Demographics (older populations worse off).
3. Greater awareness, quicker treatment, better preparation compared to earlier.
This might also partly explain why so many publics have become more blasé about #COVID19.
It's very different conceiving of contracting a disease with a 1/2000 or even 1/100 chance of dying as opposed to 1/10 or 1/7 (which was what it seemed like earlier).
It's very different conceiving of contracting a disease with a 1/2000 or even 1/100 chance of dying as opposed to 1/10 or 1/7 (which was what it seemed like earlier).
