Read on Twitter
1/
Been thinking about this a lot.
At age 10 you have no ability to earn money, aside from mowing lawns and such. 9pm bedtime.
Can't pull "on the internet no one knows you're a dog" and start coding remotely, not in 1981.
Guess I could start writing stories & articles for $ https://twitter.com/_HelenDale/status/1288214359152439298
Been thinking about this a lot.
At age 10 you have no ability to earn money, aside from mowing lawns and such. 9pm bedtime.
Can't pull "on the internet no one knows you're a dog" and start coding remotely, not in 1981.
Guess I could start writing stories & articles for $ https://twitter.com/_HelenDale/status/1288214359152439298
2/
I made my first professional sale to TSR when I was 13. Grand total of $100, IIRC.
Still, with current discipline & skills, could do that 10-20 times per year, perhaps? Earn $2k/yr starting at age 13 or so, maybe ...
Apple was 39 c /share.
...but it only did 4x til 1990
I made my first professional sale to TSR when I was 13. Grand total of $100, IIRC.
Still, with current discipline & skills, could do that 10-20 times per year, perhaps? Earn $2k/yr starting at age 13 or so, maybe ...
Apple was 39 c /share.
...but it only did 4x til 1990
3/
So $2k/yr from age 10 to 18 is $16k, assume 2x on all that money ... ugh, 8 years of grinding to get $32k by age 18.
At 18 (1989) I can hitchhike to Rt 128 or SV and talk myself into a coding job making $25-30k.
Now I can maybe save $10k/yr, if I live on rice & beans
So $2k/yr from age 10 to 18 is $16k, assume 2x on all that money ... ugh, 8 years of grinding to get $32k by age 18.
At 18 (1989) I can hitchhike to Rt 128 or SV and talk myself into a coding job making $25-30k.
Now I can maybe save $10k/yr, if I live on rice & beans
4/
So by age 20 (1991) I have $50k in savings.
Put that into MSFT and ride it for 10 years, for 50x, so now I've got $2.5M at age 29.
Nice ... but not billionaire money yet.
I suppose I can use leverage, tho, to double up on all of this.
So by age 20 (1991) I have $50k in savings.
Put that into MSFT and ride it for 10 years, for 50x, so now I've got $2.5M at age 29.
Nice ... but not billionaire money yet.
I suppose I can use leverage, tho, to double up on all of this.
5/
You don't want to be wiped out by margin calls, so you can't lever up 5x or whatever. PLUS investing was a big old hassle in the 80s and 90s. Paper certificates, T+5 day settlement, $30-50 per trade fees ...
So assume 2x leverage, plus or minus, ignore taxes. $5M at age 29
You don't want to be wiped out by margin calls, so you can't lever up 5x or whatever. PLUS investing was a big old hassle in the 80s and 90s. Paper certificates, T+5 day settlement, $30-50 per trade fees ...
So assume 2x leverage, plus or minus, ignore taxes. $5M at age 29
6/
After 2000 AD you start to see the massive run ups in GOOG, AMZN, FB, etc.
So, stop working at age 29, live off interest from $2M of the $5M, stick rest in angel investing, try to get in on the above.
In 10 years (age 39) you're def > $100M, and life is good.
After 2000 AD you start to see the massive run ups in GOOG, AMZN, FB, etc.
So, stop working at age 29, live off interest from $2M of the $5M, stick rest in angel investing, try to get in on the above.
In 10 years (age 39) you're def > $100M, and life is good.
7/
The amount of grinding, tho, from age 10 to age 30 ... ugh.
I ALREADY !@#-ing GROUND FROM AGE 10 TO 40.
Really not in a mood to start entirely over again.
...especially needing a hall pass to go to bathroom for the first 6-8 eyars.
The amount of grinding, tho, from age 10 to age 30 ... ugh.
I ALREADY !@#-ing GROUND FROM AGE 10 TO 40.
Really not in a mood to start entirely over again.
...especially needing a hall pass to go to bathroom for the first 6-8 eyars.
8/
yep, definitely this
butterfly effect ; small changes caused by your investing could percolate to VCs investing slightly differently, key engineers choosing different jobs, etc.
We have no idea how contingent GOOG, etc. dominance is. https://twitter.com/lesmothian/status/1288220748126052353
yep, definitely this
butterfly effect ; small changes caused by your investing could percolate to VCs investing slightly differently, key engineers choosing different jobs, etc.
We have no idea how contingent GOOG, etc. dominance is. https://twitter.com/lesmothian/status/1288220748126052353
9/
but butterfly effect isn't the big thing - the decades of grinding is.
Man, I'VE DONE THAT. I want to slow down the grind, not sign up for two+ more decades of it.
but butterfly effect isn't the big thing - the decades of grinding is.
Man, I'VE DONE THAT. I want to slow down the grind, not sign up for two+ more decades of it.
10/
I ALREADY TRIED THAT.
I took AP physics sophmore year, bailed on HS at 16 to go to college, etc. Only knocked a year or two off the grind.
In 2020, a time traveller in a 10yo body could start coding online for $100 / hr
In 1981...not so much. >>> https://twitter.com/leepavelich/status/1288221449635819520
I ALREADY TRIED THAT.
I took AP physics sophmore year, bailed on HS at 16 to go to college, etc. Only knocked a year or two off the grind.
In 2020, a time traveller in a 10yo body could start coding online for $100 / hr
In 1981...not so much. >>> https://twitter.com/leepavelich/status/1288221449635819520
11/
What are you going to do as a smart 10 year old in 1981? Hitchhike to DEC in Nashua NH and ask for a job programming vaxen? IBM? Even "band of pirates" Apple isn't going to give you a job.
What are you going to do as a smart 10 year old in 1981? Hitchhike to DEC in Nashua NH and ask for a job programming vaxen? IBM? Even "band of pirates" Apple isn't going to give you a job.
12/
I had an 1170 SAT in 7th grade (age 12). Everyone was really impressed. Still doesn't let you get a job. https://twitter.com/kevin_vangelder/status/1288221782990712832
I had an 1170 SAT in 7th grade (age 12). Everyone was really impressed. Still doesn't let you get a job. https://twitter.com/kevin_vangelder/status/1288221782990712832
13/
MAYBE the approach is to take the SAT and apply to local colleges at age 10.
I suppose that with my current knowledge and discipline I could do a BA in 3 years and get a CS degree.
MAYBE a firm would hire a 13 yo w a degree?
MAYBE the approach is to take the SAT and apply to local colleges at age 10.
I suppose that with my current knowledge and discipline I could do a BA in 3 years and get a CS degree.
MAYBE a firm would hire a 13 yo w a degree?
14/
this is not the way that most folks are playing the game, I think https://twitter.com/LAWGermany/status/1288222599315628038
this is not the way that most folks are playing the game, I think https://twitter.com/LAWGermany/status/1288222599315628038
16/
don't just say "buy a gazillion"
where does that gazillion come from? How big is it actually? What's the ROI over the next 10 years?
Do the math; if you're around my age, it's not so easy. https://twitter.com/cyr_actual/status/1288223115517005825
don't just say "buy a gazillion"
where does that gazillion come from? How big is it actually? What's the ROI over the next 10 years?
Do the math; if you're around my age, it's not so easy. https://twitter.com/cyr_actual/status/1288223115517005825
17/
Replay was good.
I was very underwhelmed by Rewrite tho https://www.amazon.com/Rewrite-Loops-Timescape-Gregory-Benford/dp/1481487698 https://twitter.com/JASutherlandBks/status/1288224464946302977
Replay was good.
I was very underwhelmed by Rewrite tho https://www.amazon.com/Rewrite-Loops-Timescape-Gregory-Benford/dp/1481487698 https://twitter.com/JASutherlandBks/status/1288224464946302977
18/
Concur.
I think the market was a lot calmer / slower in the 1980s and 1990s. https://twitter.com/0x49fa98/status/1288225128371892224
Concur.
I think the market was a lot calmer / slower in the 1980s and 1990s. https://twitter.com/0x49fa98/status/1288225128371892224
19/
Oh, crap, boss move is to JOIN a startup very very early on.
Duh.
I remember playing w NSCA Mosaic in 1993 in Boston, and thinking "This is the future ; I should cold call Andreesan and try to join his startup".
Didn't tho, bc coward.
Oh, crap, boss move is to JOIN a startup very very early on.
Duh.
I remember playing w NSCA Mosaic in 1993 in Boston, and thinking "This is the future ; I should cold call Andreesan and try to join his startup".
Didn't tho, bc coward.
20/
Yeah, this is my thinking. With $50M in the bank you can also get a Thiel blood boy for transfusions, personal chef / trainer, etc. https://twitter.com/tigerboy74u/status/1288225775343173632
Yeah, this is my thinking. With $50M in the bank you can also get a Thiel blood boy for transfusions, personal chef / trainer, etc. https://twitter.com/tigerboy74u/status/1288225775343173632
21/
People keep tagging into the thread, not reading what I've wrote.
BTC launched in, what, 2009 ?
The point I've belabored above remains: gotta grind for ~20+ years before the easy-money / big-money bets start appearing. https://twitter.com/FakkaFranz/status/1288225915068190722
People keep tagging into the thread, not reading what I've wrote.
BTC launched in, what, 2009 ?
The point I've belabored above remains: gotta grind for ~20+ years before the easy-money / big-money bets start appearing. https://twitter.com/FakkaFranz/status/1288225915068190722
22/
This is a good point, but OTOH, time as a child ... and under the restrictions of a child ... was / would be kind of hellish.
Stuck in the suburbs, with no money, no transportation, no adult conversation, bedtime, homework ... ergh. https://twitter.com/FakkaFranz/status/1288228896077422592
This is a good point, but OTOH, time as a child ... and under the restrictions of a child ... was / would be kind of hellish.
Stuck in the suburbs, with no money, no transportation, no adult conversation, bedtime, homework ... ergh. https://twitter.com/FakkaFranz/status/1288228896077422592
23/
* this ignores the "grind" point I've made like 100 (well, OK, 20) times above
* this ignores the "actually, it's kinda tricky to make $50M even if you know the future" point I've also made over and over. https://twitter.com/FakkaFranz/status/1288229260059193344
* this ignores the "grind" point I've made like 100 (well, OK, 20) times above
* this ignores the "actually, it's kinda tricky to make $50M even if you know the future" point I've also made over and over. https://twitter.com/FakkaFranz/status/1288229260059193344
24/
gosh, if only I'd considered this possibility in the thread https://twitter.com/FakkaFranz/status/1288231164952686592
gosh, if only I'd considered this possibility in the thread https://twitter.com/FakkaFranz/status/1288231164952686592
26/
And I've played that mental game, too.
First off, the electric motor is far too tricky, especially without electricity to power it.
Let's do something simple - a steam engine.
First, build a machinist's metal lathe.
And build the patterns that the foundrymen will cast
And I've played that mental game, too.
First off, the electric motor is far too tricky, especially without electricity to power it.
Let's do something simple - a steam engine.
First, build a machinist's metal lathe.
And build the patterns that the foundrymen will cast
27/
So, you arrive penniless in 1750 or 200 AD or whatever.
First, get a job...as a day laborer.
WHEW, LADS.
So, you arrive penniless in 1750 or 200 AD or whatever.
First, get a job...as a day laborer.
WHEW, LADS.
28/
Yep, that's the other aspect.
I hope back to age 10, and my now-wife is 8 years old and 1,000 miles away. Does one arrange to "meet" the future spouse at age 18? Now you're kind of a creepy 60 yo in an 18 yo's body ... and if you met at 30 or 40.. https://twitter.com/Unendedquest/status/1288232260102049793
Yep, that's the other aspect.
I hope back to age 10, and my now-wife is 8 years old and 1,000 miles away. Does one arrange to "meet" the future spouse at age 18? Now you're kind of a creepy 60 yo in an 18 yo's body ... and if you met at 30 or 40.. https://twitter.com/Unendedquest/status/1288232260102049793
29/
...do you even have much to say to her? Most of what made her her are experiences, things learned, things read, etc AFTER that age.
Basically, your family is dead and gone, lost in the timeline.
REEEEEEEE
...do you even have much to say to her? Most of what made her her are experiences, things learned, things read, etc AFTER that age.
Basically, your family is dead and gone, lost in the timeline.
REEEEEEEE
30/
oh, yeah, hmm, that is a good point
I should have dug into this in the thread above https://twitter.com/FakkaFranz/status/1288232557579046912
oh, yeah, hmm, that is a good point
I should have dug into this in the thread above https://twitter.com/FakkaFranz/status/1288232557579046912
31/
yeah ... you're basically friendless until you get a job and meet coworkers ...and even if you have a lot in common with the 50 yo curmudeon 3 cubes over, he's going to see you as a kid and not gonna be your bff
it's a hard lonely life ... https://twitter.com/ZombieClaudeR/status/1288233632461492224
yeah ... you're basically friendless until you get a job and meet coworkers ...and even if you have a lot in common with the 50 yo curmudeon 3 cubes over, he's going to see you as a kid and not gonna be your bff
it's a hard lonely life ... https://twitter.com/ZombieClaudeR/status/1288233632461492224
32/
and this "friendlessness" gets back to "the grind" that I keep talking about.
I ALREADY DID "ten years with no friends" once in my life; not really eager to do it again.
and this "friendlessness" gets back to "the grind" that I keep talking about.
I ALREADY DID "ten years with no friends" once in my life; not really eager to do it again.
33/
In Rewrite, by Benford, the character who reads STRONGLY as Mary Sue Benford, 60 yo in a 17 yo body, goes ahead and bangs his 17 yo crush like a church bell in a hurricane.
It was ... uh ... uncomfortable to read. https://twitter.com/cicero418/status/1288235991589965825
In Rewrite, by Benford, the character who reads STRONGLY as Mary Sue Benford, 60 yo in a 17 yo body, goes ahead and bangs his 17 yo crush like a church bell in a hurricane.
It was ... uh ... uncomfortable to read. https://twitter.com/cicero418/status/1288235991589965825
34/
YEEEEEP
Stock trades used to be super expensive. $50 fee c. 1985 is $120 today, inflation adjusted.
Have $2k to invest in this time travel scenario? Lost 5% off the top. PLUS a wide bid-ask spread!
https://www.businessinsider.com/historical-trading-commissions-2014-3 https://twitter.com/Bobthewelding1/status/1288236623000408065
YEEEEEP
Stock trades used to be super expensive. $50 fee c. 1985 is $120 today, inflation adjusted.
Have $2k to invest in this time travel scenario? Lost 5% off the top. PLUS a wide bid-ask spread!
https://www.businessinsider.com/historical-trading-commissions-2014-3 https://twitter.com/Bobthewelding1/status/1288236623000408065
35/
Yep. As I suggested upthread, I think that indy writing is the way to go.
Standard quality in RPGs, novels, etc. c. 1981 wasn't that high. I could compete well. Buy desktop publishing software and a Mac c. 1985 ... https://twitter.com/crybx/status/1288237282596593666
Yep. As I suggested upthread, I think that indy writing is the way to go.
Standard quality in RPGs, novels, etc. c. 1981 wasn't that high. I could compete well. Buy desktop publishing software and a Mac c. 1985 ... https://twitter.com/crybx/status/1288237282596593666
36/
health is a good point, too
keto + gym from age 13 or whatever would be amazing https://twitter.com/crybx/status/1288237831513612288
health is a good point, too
keto + gym from age 13 or whatever would be amazing https://twitter.com/crybx/status/1288237831513612288
37/
yeah, I'm sure that there are TONS of 50:1 bets (literal sports bets, but also shorting stocks, going deep on margin and buying for 1-day pops, etc.) out there
I'm implicitly playing the game with the rule "no time to research and memorize" https://twitter.com/drethelin/status/1288239426104156160
yeah, I'm sure that there are TONS of 50:1 bets (literal sports bets, but also shorting stocks, going deep on margin and buying for 1-day pops, etc.) out there
I'm implicitly playing the game with the rule "no time to research and memorize" https://twitter.com/drethelin/status/1288239426104156160
38/
yeah, is the dress blue or white?
there are two different ways to play the game; I read it as "back to 1981", but you can play it the other way https://twitter.com/Cristiona/status/1288240303858753541
yeah, is the dress blue or white?
there are two different ways to play the game; I read it as "back to 1981", but you can play it the other way https://twitter.com/Cristiona/status/1288240303858753541
39/
If I had to come back as a 10 year old in 2020 USA, I suppose I could write novels after school and launch them via Kickstarter / KDP ...
https://twitter.com/JASutherlandBks/status/1288241218477084673
If I had to come back as a 10 year old in 2020 USA, I suppose I could write novels after school and launch them via Kickstarter / KDP ...
https://twitter.com/JASutherlandBks/status/1288241218477084673
40/
Have thought about this.
I ABSOLUTELY could not rewrite it from memory.
I could write a SIMILAR book, but ... man...I don't know if I ** COULD **
By which I mean, I've already written it 6 times (drafts), and the magic is gone, in the sense that > https://twitter.com/SquaresToCubes/status/1288242937818517504
Have thought about this.
I ABSOLUTELY could not rewrite it from memory.
I could write a SIMILAR book, but ... man...I don't know if I ** COULD **
By which I mean, I've already written it 6 times (drafts), and the magic is gone, in the sense that > https://twitter.com/SquaresToCubes/status/1288242937818517504
41/
the absolute burning compulsion to tell this story, right, and well ... has already been shorted to ground.
It was already a massive uphill task to write 1,300 pages an accomplish what I wanted to ... WHEN THERE WAS A FIRE IN MY BELLY.
Whew.
the absolute burning compulsion to tell this story, right, and well ... has already been shorted to ground.
It was already a massive uphill task to write 1,300 pages an accomplish what I wanted to ... WHEN THERE WAS A FIRE IN MY BELLY.
Whew.
42/
I know. I addressed it 10 or 20 tweets above. https://twitter.com/magilnick/status/1288251140635627522
I know. I addressed it 10 or 20 tweets above. https://twitter.com/magilnick/status/1288251140635627522
