THREAD: Let’s talk about COVID-19 & Chicago. The city has an excellent dashboard that anyone can understand. No advanced degrees or stats class needed. Feedback welcome Spoiler: The data suggests COVID’s season is over. https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/sites/covid-19/home/covid-dashboard.html 1/*

It's been 3 months since Chicago’s highest case count on Apr 23 - 1,473 cases. Highest daily case RATE was on May 3. Note that daily testing back then was in the 4,000 - 4,500 range at that time, with % pos at ~30%. 2/*

Chicago now gives 5K-6K+ tests daily, with a % pos in the 5% range. That’s great news! We don’t know the contexts in which these tests are administered, or the % symp/asymp, but that would be valuable info to have. 3/*

The daily case rates for younger groups have gone up a bit over the past month. But the daily rates for ALL groups are still WAY below what they were in early May. And remember, people are more mobile & business more open than in May. 4/*

The data doesn’t yet show or suggest that the slight rise in cases that began at the end of June has resulted in a rise in deaths. We'll continue to have cases & deaths year-round that may fluctuate with seasonality - like w/flu - even if a vaccine is developed. 5/*

The rolling “surges” in pos cases may be influenced by widespread solicited & required testing - vs. ppl getting tested b/c they're "sick.". Per CCME, deaths comprise mostly elderly folks w/other conditions, many in LTCFs 6/* https://datacatalog.cookcountyil.gov/Public-Safety/Medical-Examiner-Case-Archive-COVID-19-Related-Dea/3trz-enys/data

So why are city leaders & health officials downplaying the most obvious patterns in the data & reacting with negativity & new restrictions? Dunno. But “cecause November” seems like an insufficient explanation for illogical policy decisions. 7/*

It seems to me Mayor Lightfoot isn't controlling the things she can & should -- gun violence, schools, and destructive rioting -- and is instead trying to control that which is "easier" to restrict but largely outside her role & responsibility. But why? 8/8

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