Read on Twitter
It's the time of year when FPL Twitter is awash with reviews, lessons learnt, and resolutions for the new season.
A short thread with some words of caution. Thoughts welcome
A short thread with some words of caution. Thoughts welcome
Unless you have kept notes, analysis of your decisions will be subject to bias and incomplete information.
That gut feel pick that you didn't go with in GW37 that cost you 10pts will be fresh in your mind - the ones you didn't go with in GW 5 + 8 that earned you 15pts won't be.
That gut feel pick that you didn't go with in GW37 that cost you 10pts will be fresh in your mind - the ones you didn't go with in GW 5 + 8 that earned you 15pts won't be.
Viewing the strategies of highly ranked teams is interesting, but without wider statistical context is of limited benefit and open to survivorship bias.
If the team ranked 1st captained the same player all season it does not necessarily follow that this is a good strategy - for every visible example of successful implementation of a strategy there may be thousands of poor outcomes hidden down the rankings.
End of season analysis by nature is focused more on outcomes, rather than decisions.
If I captain a defender 3 times throughout the season and they return 2pts each time, it does not necessarily follow that I should avoid captaining defenders next season.
If I captain a defender 3 times throughout the season and they return 2pts each time, it does not necessarily follow that I should avoid captaining defenders next season.
If those players lost their clean sheets to a single shot on target, and created big chances that the striker missed, then the decisions were valid and worthy of consideration next season.
A suggestion - the majority of those on FPL twitter sink hours into this game.
Next season, spend a few of those documenting the rationale for your changes each week, and the options you turned down. It will offer more context to your season review, and more robust conclusions.
Next season, spend a few of those documenting the rationale for your changes each week, and the options you turned down. It will offer more context to your season review, and more robust conclusions.
