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lots of people talking about the homeownership numbers from the census today. brief thread on why the numbers are bullshit (which the census themselves admit) and why it's not helpful to report them without the explicit caveats from the census https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-28/homeownership-rate-in-the-u-s-soars-to-highest-level-since-2008
here are two graphics: on the left is the homeownership rate 1980-present. on the right is the point-change value, quarter over quarter, for the same time period.
you'll notice that never was there more than 0.7 points change over a quarter, until now, with a 2.9 point change!
you'll notice that never was there more than 0.7 points change over a quarter, until now, with a 2.9 point change!
stupidly large jump in the homeownership rate. why would the census report these numbers? well, they are mandated to report them. if you actually read their metholodology comments though, you will find in pretty plain language a refutation of their own numbers:
going further, they attempt to correct the numbers, using previous difference between phone and in-person data collection, showing, on average, a 7% difference in reported homeownership rates!
not sure who it serves besides the real estate market + lenders to report this stuff as fact. the census is telling you, quite directly, that the numbers are wrong, and likely by how much.
of course the homeownership rate has been on an upward trend. but, again, this chart:
of course the homeownership rate has been on an upward trend. but, again, this chart:
and one final note: ~130M households in the US
Q2 census numbers show a 2.9% increase in homeownership rate, which would mean: 3.77 million home purchases. which is...not happening!
Q2 census numbers show a 2.9% increase in homeownership rate, which would mean: 3.77 million home purchases. which is...not happening!
