QUICK STATS THREAD

The "Messi" rule indicates that the sustainable limit for exceeding xG is approximately 30%, over a decent sample size.

4 forwards broke the Messi rule this season (Non-Penalty xG - minimum 15 shots):

Greenwood 243.6%
Aubameyang 51.9%
Kane 46.4%
Ings 42.6%

Worth noting that over their careers, Aubameyang (122 goals from NPxG 123) and Ings (38 goals from NPxG 36.7) have been quite average finishers.

Kane is an elite finisher - at normally 20% over his xG (120 goals from 98.48 NPxG).

This season seems unsustainable for all 4.

Only 4 other forwards exceeded their NPxG by any amount more than a single goal.

Vardy 21.6%
Ayew 19.8%
Lacazette 15.7%
Aguero 14.1%

Vardy, Laca and Aguero kept pace with their career level of good finishing.

Ayew greatly overachieved - but sample size is quite small.

Conversely, a total of *26* forwards underachieved their NPxG by over 10%.

Names like McGoldrick (-75%), Joelinton (-63.4%) and Benteke (-60.9%) won't come as any surprise.

Notable others are Firmino (-35.5%), Jesus (-20.9%), DCL (-16.4%) and Rashford (-14.6%).

"Steady-eddies" who pretty much met their NPxG (10% either side) were surprisingly few and far between - just 6 forwards.

This group includes early xG overachievers Pukki and Ashley Barnes (remember those "is it sustainable?" discussions?) and solid options Jimenez and Giroud.

Finally, it is worth noting that another "rule" is that the sustainable limit for goal conversion % for a fwd is approximately 25% over a decent sample.

This was *absolutely* born out in the statistics, with only Vardy (25.8%) and Greenwood (25.6%) creeping over the line.

Conclusions might be:

- It is much easier to be a bad forward than a good one
- If it looks unsustainable (xG over-performance and % goal conversion - it probably *is*)
- One season isn't necessarily long enough to see complete regression to the mean - but it usually is.

(End)