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Sun Tzu “All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near”
Thread 1/11 https://twitter.com/LTCPeterLerner/status/1288026125583765505
Thread 1/11 https://twitter.com/LTCPeterLerner/status/1288026125583765505
The challenge of deception in warfare in 2020 is the media-saturated urban environment. We don't, nor has the @IDF ever been an expeditionary force fighting thousands of miles away from home. War here is always close, present, we always appear to be on the threshold of war. 2/12
Yesterday's reported exchange with #Hezbollah is no different. Israel's main goal with Hezbollah for the last 14 years has been to postpone war as much as possible. This has been successfully achieved by the war-between-war campaign. 3/12
The WBWC is an ongoing effort to degrade Hezbollah's offensive game-changing capabilities & prevent #Iran from establishing a forward position on the border with Israel in the Golan. Most of these actions take place beneath the public radar & within the realm of deniability. 4/12
Yesterday's skirmish is one of the rare occasions that the campaign surfaces into the public eye & potentially could lead to a full out war between Israel & Hezbollah. The public perception is a master key in averting that escalation. @IDFSpokesperson the delivery weapon. 5/12
The main mission in this instance is tied to the operational mission - avert the conflict. The @IDFSpokesperson must reflect realities on the ground, within the media "golden hour", and maintain credibility. 6/12
Last September that credibility was severely damaged by an attempt to give Hezbollah a sense of victory by manipulating very visible fake medical evacuation with helicopters, acting wounded soldiers, explosions, and smokescreens. 7/12
Many of the military correspondents, usually "in the know" were sucker-punched and are now questioning the authenticity of every event and piece of information fed to them by the IDF on the northern border. 8/12
The main question is can the @IDF in 2020 manipulate a targeted information operation that has supposed ramification on the Israeli public? The answer - it's complicated. The alternative to manipulation is dead Israeli soldiers or war. 9/12
But in the IDF attempt to avoid war & continue to degrade Hezbollah & Iran in the region, the IDF is also degrading its credibility. While I prefer we don't go to war, or soldiers get killed in acts of revenge the ramifications of the loss of IDF credibility is unfathomable. 9/12
The short time the IDF is able to maintain the operational deception proved yesterday to be not enough. The price has been the questions asked since yesterday, and the anticipation for a Hezbollah attack. 10/12
It is the credibility of the @IDFSpokesperson that enables the IDF to recruit our sons and daughters. Without that credibility more & more people will ask, why should I sacrifice my self? and am I being told the truth? 10/12
It's time for a shift in strategic communication, operational tactics, the need for better transparency. Finally, we need legislation that prevents the defense establishment from conducting information operations against us. 10/12 END
