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In my first piece for @jricole's Informed Comment blog, I write about the recent explosions in #Iran. I explain this round of sabotage smacks of desperation & a last-ditch effort to goad Iran into overreaction & conflict before Trump leaves office: https://www.juancole.com/2020/07/the-beginning-iran.html
2. Late last year, an aid to Netanyahu told @BenCaspit that Israel has a "golden opportunity" going into the US election year if it has a "unity government headed by Netanyahu."
"You have no idea what we can wheedle from the Americans now," he said.
"You have no idea what we can wheedle from the Americans now," he said.
3. That unity Israeli government with Netanyahu at its helm now exists.
But what would the "historic opportunity" for Israel look like?
Netanyahu & his senior advisors have repeatedly talked about war with #Iran & the likelihood of war this year.
But what would the "historic opportunity" for Israel look like?
Netanyahu & his senior advisors have repeatedly talked about war with #Iran & the likelihood of war this year.
4. Netanyahu has a history of agitating for a US war against #Iran.
Fmr US Secretary of State John Kerry has said that during the nuclear negotiations, Netanyahu pushed for the US to bomb Iran.
Netanyahu himself almost attacked Iran in 2010/2011 but was held back by Obama.
Fmr US Secretary of State John Kerry has said that during the nuclear negotiations, Netanyahu pushed for the US to bomb Iran.
Netanyahu himself almost attacked Iran in 2010/2011 but was held back by Obama.
5. The situation is now the polar opposite.
According to Bolton, Trump has already green-lighted Israeli strikes on Iran.
He's given Netanyahu unconditional support across the board.
He's even said reneging on the #Iran deal was "probably the biggest thing I did for Israel"
According to Bolton, Trump has already green-lighted Israeli strikes on Iran.
He's given Netanyahu unconditional support across the board.
He's even said reneging on the #Iran deal was "probably the biggest thing I did for Israel"
6. However, in the face of efforts from Trump & Netanyahu to provoke Iran into conflict, Iran has exercised restraint.
#Iran has not taken the bait nor imploded or capitulated.
Instead, it's responded in calibrated fashion to increase the costs for "maximum pressure" against it
#Iran has not taken the bait nor imploded or capitulated.
Instead, it's responded in calibrated fashion to increase the costs for "maximum pressure" against it
7. It now seems possible that the nuclear deal will survive Trump’s sabotage and be resuscitated. Trump is dwindling in the polls. Biden has said he'd return to the deal.
For Netanyahu & co, this is the worst case scenario.
For Netanyahu & co, this is the worst case scenario.
8. Netanyahu will have lost the "golden opportunity" of the Trump era to decisively kill the nuclear deal and trigger a head-on US-Iran war.
The next few months before the US election will be crucial. The sabotages in #Iran should be seen in this context.
The next few months before the US election will be crucial. The sabotages in #Iran should be seen in this context.
9. John Bolton, Netanyahu's very close ally, recently said loudly & openly what others in the pro-war camp hesitate to say publicly: "the next few months are an optimal time for Israel to act in its own national security interests."
10. A "hot summer" has clearly been planned for #Iran.
Netanyahu & co are hoping Iran provides a casus belli that could be seized upon to shift global opinion & engulf the US in a conflict that a Biden administration could not easily undo.
Netanyahu & co are hoping Iran provides a casus belli that could be seized upon to shift global opinion & engulf the US in a conflict that a Biden administration could not easily undo.
