Having observed reactions from Umno leaders, it seems like the Najib verdict comes as no surprise — maybe even a sigh of relief. No saber-rattling, no threats. Words like “akur” and “campur-baur” indicate resignation and desire to move forward, rather than contest verdict.

Like I’ve been saying, Najib is the past, even in Umno. He still has access to huge funds and remains influential, but with Umno in PN there is no potent Najib Faction anymore. Najib isn’t Mahathir: no gain for anyone within Umno to tie themselves to him & go down with the ship.

Curiously to me, leaders — including Najib — have also been talking about looking to “keputusan parti” and changes to “dinamik parti”, as if it’s a big shock to the system that 1MDB was corrupted. Suggests discussions towards a realignment in Umno, but not how you would think...

Umno is no longer worried about its survival, unlike during the early PH stage. Probably goes unspoken at Supreme Council level, but current top leadership is unlikely to survive past this term: Zahid will get convicted, Tok Mat will fade away. This is the realignment.

It’s likely we’ll see Umno coagulate into two main wings: a hard-right force potentially led by president Ismail Sabri and deputy Annuar Musa, and a more centrist wing seeing a ticket of Hishammuddin and KJ. I wrote Hisham off before, but I think his stock has risen again.

If it comes to party polls, conservatives will win easily. Between now and 2023, watch carefully how Muhyiddin plays Umno factions against each other. Probable for a reshuffle to thrust Hisham or KJ to Senior Minister level, to balance against Ismail Sabri’s heightened profile.

Umno remains the fulcrum of PN. The Malay front with Pas is vital for control of state govts, but skew too hard right and they risk losing Sarawak to PH. Altho with ethnonationalists within Muafakat so empowered, any stonewalling on issues like RUU355 risks angering grassroots.

Umno has always needed a leader who can manage a balancing act. Mahathir used an unassailable majority; Najib used money. Zahid has been invisible, but approach involves religiosity, personal charisma and close ties with other party heads — and delegating tasks to other leaders.