Things are about to get busy in the AFL. Teams typically have about a week between games, and there’s a pretty consistent formula for distributing training days into key themes to juggle the competing demands of recovery, adaptation and readiness. For example:

But that’s about to change, with the next 4 rounds to be played on a congested schedule. Tight fixtures increase the injury risk, and so recovery has to be prioritised, reducing the opportunity for substantial training load, which can cost teams at the business end of the season.

Applying the general framework in the context of Collingwood’s schedule paints a pretty clear picture of what teams are up against. All four games are very winnable, but they’re forced to travel for every game, and their opportunities to add meaningful load are scarce.

In comparison, the bye round leaves Hawthorn with a favourable fixture, especially considering their three games are all played within the Western Australian hub. It may even be enough to keep Alastair Clarkson from whinging to the media for a week or two.

Clubs have contacted NBA teams, who have a notoriously dense fixture, for insight into load micro-dosing. It’s not unusual for clubs to sneak gym load into G+2 or G-2 to top-up abilities developed during pre-season, but a collision between recovery and high loads can be costly.

A two week injury could now cost a player four games, meaning that the validated link between player availability and finals chances (via @D_Hoffman93) may be accentuated under the current conditions. To reduce the injury risk, expect player rotation to be at an all-time high.

Some teams may channel their inner Gregg Popovich by selecting a game to rest their key players, rather than staggering the rests across the entire period. The fixture is not built equal, which will feed into the respective rotation strategies, and skew the odds of winning.

Example: when Richmond play Brisbane, the Tigers have five days between games while the Lions have three, tilting the scales in favour of Richmond. There are a bunch of similar scenarios over the coming weeks, so buckle in, hope that the hamstrings hold up, and enjoy the ride.