With the beginning of summer, escalation in Syria begins again. The first reason is the increase of insurgence #ISIS activity in the Syrian desert & rebel groups in #Daraa governorate, where #SAA continue suffering important casualties in combats with these groups (1)

#Daraa: Since the end of "Basalt operation" on August 2018 the situation in the region is increasingly unstable and attacks continue to occur with great frequency. With the end of #Op_Redemption3, #SAA allocated more military resources in order to deal with the insurgency (2)

by sending big reinforcements to the province & launching two antiterrorist operations in the towns of Sanamayn and Muzayrib, with greater success in the first. Operations were to continue in other nearby towns. However, Russian mediation put an end to the military operations (3)

& opened a dialogue between the army & rebel groups with small concessions that didn't satisfy either side. The continuation of attacks & the creation of Al-Awdah forces (8th brigade inside 5th corps) formed by ex-rebel troops (4)

indicates the inestability in the region will continue more months until conditions are more favorable & other military task have been completed (5)

Syrian desert: Since April #SAA & allies began new combing operations in the desert. In addition to the operations in Homs and Deir Ezzor, it is worth mentioning the extension of these operations to the governorates of Raqqa, Hama & Aleppo, less frequent than the previous two (6)

highlighting the areas of Jabal Bishri, Resafa, Ghanim al Ali, Uqayribat, Khanasir-Ithriya, Hail gas field-T3 pumping station & Mayadin-Duwayr axis as of remarkable growth ones. Despite the extent of these operations, the results continue to have little success & #ISIS (7)

continue their attacks to #SAA checkpoints & local civilians despite being more weaken due to lack of resources & finantiation, keeping thanks to looting and smuggling activities (8)

However, the increase of Russian troops at the outskirts of Deir Ezzor, together with reports about the construction of two Russian bases in Palmira and Maadan seems to indicate a greater involvement of troops & support to #SAA against #ISIS east of the country in the future (9)

in addition to an attempt to counterbalance the predominant Iranian influence in the region that would continue to remain strong in Bukamal. Apart from the desert, Russia is also working on expanding its presence East of the Euphrates river with a notable increase of troops (10)

in conjunction with #SAA reinforcements in the recent weeks towards Raqqa (Ayn Issa-Tall Siman) & Hasakah with the aim of counterbalance American influence near the Semalka and Yadoudiyah border crossings if the reports of a new russian base in Dayr Al-Ghassan becames true (11)

The second and much more recent reason has been the next third phase of #IdlibDawn operation. After almost 5 months the Russian-Turkish patrols have completed the designated section of the M4 highway for the first time. (12)

In this way, Turkey gained enough time to intervene in Libya where it has supported the #GNA militarily to reverse most of its military losses since April 2019; & in greater #Idlib, where the number of observation posts has increased until 49 specially south of the province (13)

in addition to rearming the rebels with new equipment, which will make the future advance of the Syrian army more difficult, which has already started sending the main offensive units to the front after several months of troop rotations. On the other hand, Russia gained time (14)

to bring new weapons of various types & train new #SAA troops, also the joint patrols & drone flights served to collect information about the rebel infraestructures & troops in the area & to use it efficiently once the new offensive begins (15)

Despite all of these indications, the operation may not take place until the end of summer or beginning of autumn due to the political pressure from Turkey, in addition to military plans continue with the preparation of new tactics, troops & weapons in the government ranks (16)