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Let's peek into a potential (and extremely unlikely) Illinoisan future. It is June 2021, and Joe Biden's vice president Tammy Duckworth has left a vacant Senate seat. Running off of her suburban appeal after defeating Randy Hultgren in the 14th district and her 1/
nurse's credentials as the COVID pandemic looms large, Rep. Lauren Underwood wins a fractured Democratic primary and easily defeats State Sen. Sue Rezin to become the state's next junior Senator. Insiders whisper that Underwood feared a redistricting against Rep. Bill Foster 2/
or a much redder district than she currently represents, and thus opted to run statewide. The rumors appear to be true when the new Illinois congressional districts are passed by Gov. JB Pritzker (thanks to DRA): Naperville, where Underwood and Foster live has been split 3/
into two districts in which four incumbents live (Newman lives in LaGrange and Casten lives in Downers Grove, both in District 4). As results roll in on Election Night, this is how Illinois' new map pans out. 4/
IL-01: Containing some of Chicago's South Side and its suburbs, and most analogous to former IL-02, the majority black 1st district sends Robin Kelly (D-Matteson) back to Congress as she trounces token opposition. 5/
IL-02: Stretching from Chicago to Kankakee alongside IL-01, another majority black district re-elects an incumbent, Bobby Rush (D-Chicago) in a landslide, once again with little opposition. 6/
IL-03: A less offensive edition of the infamous earmuff district, this majority Latinx district is the bluest in the state, and Chuy Garcia cruises quite easily to another term. 7/
IL-04: A swingy white district stretching from Naperville to Midway, a close primary between incumbents Marie Newman and Sean Casten sees Newman prevail, and then eke out a general election win due to weak Republican recruiting. 8/
IL-05: A minority coalition with a plurality of black voters is found in the 5th, and despite a primary from the left, Danny Davis (D-Chicago) blows past any opposition to re-election. 9/
IL-06: The Sixth includes O'Hare, Uptown, and everything between, and Mike Quigley (D-Chicago) achieves easy success in his re-election campaign. 10/
IL-07: In a district of western Chicago suburbs, Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) returns to the House after his failed Senate bid in 2021. 11/
IL-08: Another redistricting primary occurs on the North Shore, this one Jan Schakowsky (D-Evanston) v. Brad Scheider (D-Deerfield). With her deep support in Evanston and surrounding areas, Schakowsky romps to a win in both the primary and the general. 12/
IL-09: Anchored in Waukegan and stretching to Elgin, the 9th district had no incumbent, but the DCCC recruit Sam Cunningham, mayor of Waukegan, clears the primary field and is the first Congressional freshman from Illinois in 2022. 13/
IL-10: The Tenth is a light red district that includes parts of McHenry, Kane, Lake, and DuPage counties. After losing to Sean Casten in 2018, a Biden midterm allows Pete Roskam (R-Wheaton) to return to the Hill. 14/
IL-11: This map would have pitted Underwood against Foster here, but as she is on to bigger and better things, Foster has this district, including west Naperville and Aurora, all to himself and heads back to the House. 15/
IL-12: Cheri Bustos is in the fight for her political life here as Sue Rezin, back from her failed Senate campaign, makes a bid for the House. Ultimately, Busto's personal brand wins the day, though by a much slimmer margin than ever before. 16/
IL-13: Containing exurbs and rural area from DeKalb to Galesburg, this district handily re-elects Adam Kinzinger (R-Channahon) in a race where Democrats put up little fight. 17/
IL-14: This is a hotly contested race between two Champaignians: former AG candidate Erika Harold faces off against State Rep. Carol Ammons, with high-profile endorsements from Sens. Sanders and Warren. Harold seems to edge it out on Election Night, but no network calls it. 18/
IL-15: Another deep-red seat centered around Peoria, where Darin LaHood is the heavy favorite and sweeps at the ballot box. 19/
IL-16: This district combines Springfield and East St. Louis, giving freshman Representative Betsy Dirksen Londrigan a much easier path to her second term in Congress 20/
IL-17: The last, and least interesting, race to cover is in Southern Illinois, where Mike Bost, once vulnerable in 2018, is easily re-elected in the reddest district in Illinois. 21/
And that's about all my crystal ball can take. I really don't want to call the winner of the 14th district because my gut says Harold wins but Ammons is sure to drive out UIUC progressives. Thus, the Illinois delegation to the 118th congress is 12D-4R-1?. Hope you enjoyed! 22/22
