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Thread: DOH claims that the positivity rate was reduced from 22.2% on April 30 to 8.8% on July 23.
Fact check: This is FALSE on so many levels.
Let me explain.
Fact check: This is FALSE on so many levels.
Let me explain.
8.8% last July 23 was the CUMULATIVE positivity rate.
Cumulative positivity rate on April 30 was 10.9% (not 22.2%)
The cumulative rate went down to 6.9% in mid-June but ROSE in July. This increase is significant because the denominator is now higher due to expanded testing.
Cumulative positivity rate on April 30 was 10.9% (not 22.2%)
The cumulative rate went down to 6.9% in mid-June but ROSE in July. This increase is significant because the denominator is now higher due to expanded testing.
So where did the 22.2% positivity rate come from?
It was the DAILY rate last April 3 (not April 30). The positivity rate on the day of April 30 was 8.5%
So not only was the date cited incorrect but the comparison itself was flawed. It was apples to oranges (cumulative vs daily)
It was the DAILY rate last April 3 (not April 30). The positivity rate on the day of April 30 was 8.5%
So not only was the date cited incorrect but the comparison itself was flawed. It was apples to oranges (cumulative vs daily)
So if the comparison was April 30 vs June 23, here's the correct one:
Cumulative
April 30 - 10.9%
July 23 - 8.8%
Daily
April 30 - 8.5%
July 23 - 12.1%
But even this comparison is inappropriate given the substantial differences in denominators. That needs to be included.
Cumulative
April 30 - 10.9%
July 23 - 8.8%
Daily
April 30 - 8.5%
July 23 - 12.1%
But even this comparison is inappropriate given the substantial differences in denominators. That needs to be included.
The PH positivity rate has been rising. As PH expands testing, the positivity rate should go down. That is NOT the case, indicating an increase in transmission.
The WHO advised that positivity rates should be 5% or lower for 2 weeks. PH is not yet there
Hope this helps clarify.
The WHO advised that positivity rates should be 5% or lower for 2 weeks. PH is not yet there
Hope this helps clarify.
