If I was sitting at the desk of the once (and future) Office of Technology Assessment (a now defunct unit of Congress that advises Congress on tech) I'd be raising some alarm bells about this proposal to limit unemployment insurance to 70% of lost wages (a thread)

There's not just one system that runs unemployment insurance. Every state and territory has one and each one is it's unique since it's a state administered program. So, when you make a big change to it - you have to change over 50 systems.

These systems are also old - some of these are still using mainframe systems from the 70s. They were never designed to take on this many claims all at once. Even before you talk about adding anything else a lot of these systems caught fire and people are still waiting to be paid.

The implementation of a 70% rule is gonna be a major hurdle. The way that most states calculate your weekly benefit amount is to take an average of your two highest quarters over the last 18 months. It's not set up to take into account what your wages were at your last job.

(Remember, it's an insurance program. Your employer pays into UI based on your wages. If you become unemployed *through no fault of your own* you're eligible)

So, you're basing the 70% amount on info they're not gonna have on hand. (Since it's quarterly wage info of something a claimant has earned - not lost wages)

It's a big change....which is expected to be rolled out in (checks notes)...October.

That's a very fast deadline for a lot of work. Which means it'll be expensive for states to fix... because they'll need to go to a big vendor who has capacity to do this. And everyone knows that the states have to do this and won't have a lot of options.

Results could be:

1) States do it & pay for it through the nose - hurting their overall budget picture.

2) The systems roll out late.

3) The systems break. (Remember, they're already on fire)

4) Project goes way overbudget

But let's be honest, it's gonna be all 4

Listen and trust the people who work on this stuff... like the National Association of State Workforce Agencies. https://www.npr.org/2020/07/25/895212697/state-unemployment-agencies-could-take-months-to-adapt-to-wh-proposal-memos-show