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FWIW re: 1988, looking only at "strong" feelings about Dukakis, 34% had a very favorable (27%)/unfavorable (7%) opinion in July 1988 and 38% had strong feelings by Election Day 1988 (16% very favorable/22% very unfavorable), per Gallup polls taken at the time. 1/
The same is actually true of Bush - the sitting vice president! In those same Gallup polls, only 28% had strong feelings of Bush in July (10% very favorable/18% very unfavorable) and just 38% had strong feelings by Election Day (20% very favorable/18% very unfavorable).
Compare that to the present: per Fox News poll which is the most recent with intensity measures, 60% have very favorable (29%)/unfavorable (31%) views of Biden; 77% (!) have them of Trump (30% very favorable/47% very unfavorable). 3/
Why so different? Partisan polarization has gone through the roof in 32 years; Reagan had a net positive approval rating on Election Day in 1988 while Trump is consistently underwater; the candidates in 2020 are more defined (former VP for 8 years vs. incumbent president). 4/
I'm not a scholar on the 1988 election, but Bush had an advantage by virtue of Dukakis being so little-defined to wage a "tax-and-spend" / "law-and-order" type campaign while relying on his association with a above-water two terms of Reagan. 5/
99 days out, this isn't to say Trump can't improve his position enough to win the election. Of course he can. But this isn't 1988 either. The simple version is that Trump has failed to navigate multiple crises a president is expected to navigate. 6/
Threats of how bad "Joe Biden's America" might be are likely discordant during a time of crisis when you're the incumbent and have lost trust. I'm in the "anything can happen" camp but Trump's best/only? chance is to convincingly be seen as resolving/ameliorating a crisis. 7/
Given Trump's entire track record as president and his approach to the 2020 campaign thus far, and the record lows in approval on handling his job, the pandemic response, and even eroding ratings on the economy... that's why he's the clear underdog. 8/
One other thing: I have no doubt Trump will try to use the blunt instruments of power at his disposal to try to help advantage his campaign, and obviously he is already spreading misinformation / questioning election legitimacy to open an alternate window of uncertainty... 9/
We also have a pandemic that is causing at least some large segment of people to see their health versus going to a polling place as a tradeoff, and a Postal Service under threat that is going to be relied upon for voting-by-mail scaled to a degree we've never seen before... 10/
Polling is very consistent right now and yes, it paints a picture that shows Trump very far behind. Don't say "polls don't matter" / "don't trust the polls" because they are necessary to understanding public opinion on any number of issues, not just the horserace... 11/
However, that doesn't mean things can't change, or be affected by external events or something entirely unpredictable at this point (99 days to go until Election Day, we're closer now to Trump's bleach/disinfectant comments which were 94 days ago). 12/
All of this is to say:
1) Trump is far behind/Biden is favored to win
2) That can change due to reasonably predictable reasons or unpredictable things to come
3) There are good reasons to be skeptical of Trump's campaign approach
4) Work hard to make the polls a reality!
13/end
1) Trump is far behind/Biden is favored to win
2) That can change due to reasonably predictable reasons or unpredictable things to come
3) There are good reasons to be skeptical of Trump's campaign approach
4) Work hard to make the polls a reality!
13/end
