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One of the ways I’ve spent the last few years trying to understand what’s happening in Tx politics is to watch campaign activity on the U.S. House level of the ballot. My interest is less about who wins and loses each seat but looking for downballot organization and enthusiasm.
For instance, Democrats did not even have candidates in 2014 in seven Congressional Districts. All safe seats (at least then) and there was zero Dem activity. No yard signs, no Rotary club meetings, nothing.
In 2018, Dems had candidates in all 36 CDs. Some did minimal effort, other Ds strangely outraised longtime GOP incumbents in some quarters & then went on to soundly lose the general.
In aggregate, 2018 Dem candidates doubled their 2016 fundraising while Republicans grew a little. https://www.texastribune.org/2018/07/18/texas-democrats-running-us-house-fundraising-boom/
I sat down last week to run the numbers again, not really knowing what to expect. I was truly stunned:
Here is my attempt to make sense of what’s going on, along with @valeriaoliesc and @carla_astudi: https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/27/texas-democrats-congress-election/
