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6 reasons why San Francisco is probably not as screwed as you think it is
[Contrarian thread]
[Contrarian thread]
1. City budget
Tax income will fall but SF is strategically back-stopped by multiple property taxes which make up a large % of its income
SF home sale prices are *UP* >10% YoY & volume is back = good for SF treasury
This is not true in other US cities
https://sfcontroller.org/sites/default/files/Documents/Budget/March%20Joint%20Report%20Memo%20ACTIVE.pdf
Tax income will fall but SF is strategically back-stopped by multiple property taxes which make up a large % of its income
SF home sale prices are *UP* >10% YoY & volume is back = good for SF treasury
This is not true in other US cities
https://sfcontroller.org/sites/default/files/Documents/Budget/March%20Joint%20Report%20Memo%20ACTIVE.pdf
2. VC investments
Bay Area startups will see a lower % of VC $, it's impossible to think that they won't
But the Bay/SF already receives 44% of VC investment in the US. This will not evaporate overnight, *a lot* of talent is still here https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2019/12/18/bay-area-venture-funding-report-crunchbase.html
Bay Area startups will see a lower % of VC $, it's impossible to think that they won't
But the Bay/SF already receives 44% of VC investment in the US. This will not evaporate overnight, *a lot* of talent is still here https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2019/12/18/bay-area-venture-funding-report-crunchbase.html
3. Future of work
Many SF startups will shift to a more remote work culture post Covid19
But this does not mean *fully* remote
Many are talking about deploying hub strategies where teams will still collab in person 1-2x a week and have social events 2-3x a month. Both in SF
Many SF startups will shift to a more remote work culture post Covid19
But this does not mean *fully* remote
Many are talking about deploying hub strategies where teams will still collab in person 1-2x a week and have social events 2-3x a month. Both in SF
4. "Other" industries
Software may be eating the world but let's not forget that SF is the heart of many other leading industries
- Pioneering scientific research (e.g. UCSF)
- Biotech (Genentech)
- CPG (Sephora)
- Entertainment (Dolby)
+10s more
Software may be eating the world but let's not forget that SF is the heart of many other leading industries
- Pioneering scientific research (e.g. UCSF)
- Biotech (Genentech)
- CPG (Sephora)
- Entertainment (Dolby)
+10s more
5. Market equilibrium
SF rent prices are down 11.8% YoY
Markets 101: SF will keep getting cheaper until a new demand/supply equilibrium hits, it won't just 'empty'
A more affordable cost of living will attract a next gen of people to move here & collab with us jaded folks
SF rent prices are down 11.8% YoY
Markets 101: SF will keep getting cheaper until a new demand/supply equilibrium hits, it won't just 'empty'
A more affordable cost of living will attract a next gen of people to move here & collab with us jaded folks
6. Irrationality
Markets are the aggregation of human psychology & emotion
This city has chronic problems (cc @LondonBreed) but I fall in love with it all over again each time I come back in across the bridges
I am not alone. We humans are irrational, emotional beings
Markets are the aggregation of human psychology & emotion
This city has chronic problems (cc @LondonBreed) but I fall in love with it all over again each time I come back in across the bridges
I am not alone. We humans are irrational, emotional beings
