My thoughts on #Invest92L - Definitely one of the largest, most impressive waves I've seen - good inflow of moisture from from the south and southwest, dry air pouring down to the east of the wave

Zoom in shows in inflow well and the strong, dry easterly jet across the northern portion of the wave

Looking at a cross section across the northern portion of the wave shows the 50+kt jet at ~700mb and fairly dry conditions, not allowing any convective organziation at the moment

Similar cross section across the central portion of the wave shows a very moist environment throughout the troposphere

I think we are going to see the moist inflow amplify the wave through the day today, see a pickup in convection with additional convergence + Dmax tonight and have a much better looking invest by tomorrow with likely tropical cyclogenesis late tomorrow or Wednesday

Thus far convection has increased a bit overnight, but the circulation is still elongated WSW to ENE and the wave didn't tilt/amplify more North-South like I was expecting, possibly due to some strong SAL impinging on the NE portion of the wave

HWRF which explicitly handles convection suggests that the elongation should contract into a more compact, round circulation over the next 48 hours. This is an area of the Atlantic favored for development with converging surface winds due to the Lesser Antilles and warming SSTs

The UKMET (shown) and the ECMWF suggest the western convection in the elongated circulation becomes dominant and thus takes #Invest92L further south through the Lesser Antilles and then has substantial weakening or dissipation of whatever forms over the Dominican Republic

The GFS has a more northern consolidation which takes the low north of Puerto Rico / Hispaniola, while the Canadian and German Models are somewhere in between

With Gonzalo, the GFS and the HWRF (which intializes with GFS data) were too slow / too strong / too far north in the face of fast trade winds. I'm leaning toward this being the case again, but this is a much, much larger circulation in a moister environment