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New paper with @JCMecon and @Courtemanche_CJ published in Journal of Risk & Uncertainty.
We find that #ecig taxes
adult ecig use and 
adult cigarette use. Cigarette taxes have symmetrical effects. Large unintended effects!
Paper: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-020-09330-9
#EconTwitter 1/12
We find that #ecig taxes
adult ecig use and adult cigarette use. Cigarette taxes have symmetrical effects. Large unintended effects!Paper: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-020-09330-9
#EconTwitter 1/12
E-cig taxes were adopted in ten states and two large counties between 2011 to 2018, with the taxes ranging from $0.05 per ml to $1.82 per fluid ml by the end of 2018. Cigarette taxes meanwhile increased in 21 states and five counties over the same time period.
2/12
2/12
We study the effect of these tax changes using #brfss and #nhis data for over 4 million adults.
3/12
3/12
In a Census research data center, we estimate diff-in-diff-like regression models, controlling for demographics, other policies, county fixed effects, and time fixed effects.
4/12
4/12
A $1.00 increase in the cigarette tax reduces adult daily smoking by 5.3%. A $1.00 increase in the e-cigarette tax (per fluid ml) reduces the probability of adult daily vaping by 14.2%.
5/12
5/12
Increasing the tax on one product increases usage of the other. #substitution. A $1.00 increase in the cigarette tax increases daily vaping by 14.2% and a $1.00 increase in the e-cigarette tax increases daily smoking by 5.3%.
6/12
6/12
We find evidence that most of the own- and cross-tax responsiveness is driven by younger adults under 40 years of age.
7/12
7/12
The House of Representatives has passed a bill to implement a national e-cigarette tax of $1.65 per fluid ml, exceeding the tax per pack of cigarettes of $1.01.
If this becomes law, we estimate it will cause 2.5 million extra adult daily smokers.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/2339
8/12
If this becomes law, we estimate it will cause 2.5 million extra adult daily smokers.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/2339
8/12
This study supports the conclusion from many other studies that regulating e-cigarettes has large unintended effects of raising cigarette use in youth, adults, and pregnant women.
https://bit.ly/2XrIQzb .
https://twitter.com/JCMecon/status/1226874665705959425
9/12
https://bit.ly/2XrIQzb .
https://twitter.com/JCMecon/status/1226874665705959425
9/12
Since #ecigs are thoughts by most researchers to be substantially safer products than cigarettes, this is particularly concerning. #HarmReduction
10/12
10/12
Check out other great e-cigarette articles that will be included in this Journal of Risk & Uncertainty e-cigarette special issue, including by @Mikenber, @WKipViscusi, @danieldench1, and others.
https://www.springer.com/journal/11166
11/12
https://www.springer.com/journal/11166
11/12
