THREAD
The electricity-exporting countries Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Iran mostly sell their surplus electricity to Afghanistan. When they no longer have a surplus, they stop supplying.

Depending on such less-than fully reliable connections, Afghanistan might face further blackouts at any moment and particularly during a dry year (with less surplus hydropower available for export) or when a neighbouring country’s power system has technical difficulties.

The 2004 Power Sector Master Plan described the disadvantages of an import strategy:
The main disadvantage of the strategy is reliance on politically unstable neighbors, limited enforceability of commercial contracts, and lack of certainty about future price trends.

Equally important, the long-term availability of power from these sources has not yet been established, particularly the reliability during winter evenings, which is crucial for Afghanistan.

With most exporting countries’ own demands rapidly increasing – for instance in Tajikistan – these kinds of agreements at best make for unreliable solutions.

Even with power purchase agreements in place that include provisions for financial penalties for non-compliance, it is likely that a neighbouring country will not choose to cut off its own citizens or resort to load shedding in order to be able to meet its commitment with AFG .

International development partners have spent more than $4 billion in the electricity sector since 2002. The United States alone spent nearly $3 billion on power sector projects in AFG. The cost of imported energy increased from $16 million in 2007 to nearly $255 million in 2018.