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What's the strategic effect of the LAC crisis? Some say India/US will move closer; tho EAM Jaishankar said no to alliances.
I examine effect of LAC crisis on strategic competition w/China, in my latest @east_asia_forum, here: https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/07/27/india-does-not-need-a-cold-war-alliance/.
My key points...(1/5)
I examine effect of LAC crisis on strategic competition w/China, in my latest @east_asia_forum, here: https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/07/27/india-does-not-need-a-cold-war-alliance/.
My key points...(1/5)
First, the Cold War alliance analogy is bunk. Today's strategic competition w/China is much fuzzier, w/broader spectrum of attitudes to China. Many are suspicious of China w/o being allied to US. Indeed, US attitudes to competition are also uneven. (2/5)
Second, in this context, India has been a founding member of the suspicious-of-China camp. Its been waging its own strategic competition - albeit w/varying tactics & effects. Its declarative policy shies away from "picking a side," but its actions are increasingly clear. (3/5)
Third, Indian competition w/China has been anemic because its muddled, based on obsolete threat perceptions. Alliance w/US isn't on the cards, & in any case, no alliance can paper over this strategic muddle of misallocated resources & misplaced attention. (4/5)
But maybe - just maybe, if we're lucky - the crisis will help to rebalance Ind strategy, w/more resources & attention for regional competition. If so, this setback on LAC (not yet resolved) may be a relatively cheap lesson after all. (5/5)
