Some thoughts on the latest release from #ISIS’ Al-Hayat Media Center, “Incite the Believers.”

Thread

The short video incites #ISIS followers to launch attacks in enemy lands. It’s released shortly after its official al-Nabaa magazine provides advice to plot in secrecy & integrate into the surrounding environment, denoting a coordinated campaign to incite attacks in the West.

While the video incites attacks using “available means” like ramming, stabbing, and guns, it focuses on arson attacks, giving the method a Five Star rating vs. other methods. Note that ramming attacks, which are very popular, got a four star rating.

The video highlights important areas for setting forests ablaze, (i.e. California as target, but also US south areas). Jihadists at large previously encouraged arson attacks in forests, going back a decade (i.e. splinter AQ faction claimed the Nevada fires w/o evidence years ago)

Other targets the group emphasizes include factories and agricultural fields — the latter has been regularly targeted by ISIS across #Iraq over the past several months, and it consistently bragged about the success.

ISIS did not disregard other attack means; it just emphasizes that they might be highly difficult to obtain or require a lot of work. For the group, it’s not about creating the spectacle — the Boom Effect — but about showcasing its ability to strike again in desirable areas.

As I mentioned previously, #ISIS seeks to strike again in the West — orchestrated or inspired — after a slumber; it wants to send a message primarily to its support base that it is not only capable of doing so, but that its promised vengeance is in the works.

The group has recently resurged in #Iraq, its most important operational territory and center of gravity. One of the messages we need to read here is that while the US&co spent unimaginable amounts of money to defeat it and secure Iraq, mission was unaccomplished.

Striking in the West would further support the group’s thesis and highly uplift the morale of its militants and followers around the globe — who will take this as a sign of a comeback, which the group has promised. It is a cycle of “I told you so when I have an opportunity.” END