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The US-Russian strategic stability talks that started in Vienna today will be somewhat of a make-or-brake moment for bilateral arms control at least in the medium term. Short thread 1/8
There always was a possibility that the Trump admin is simply not serious about arms control, wants it gone & uses talks with Russia as window dressing. Alternatively you could argue that it’s for real but the demands are unrealistically high 2/8
Or the US were really into arms control but just couldn’t pull it of organizationally - four latest delegations were headed by four different people, multiple secretaries & NatSec advisors have changed 3/
But it was hard to tell one way or another (is it 1? 2? 3? all of them?) since all we had were one-day meetings twice a year. This time it will be different - 3 days, 3 dedicated working groups, professionals talking to professionals 4/8
If the US is ready to say: here are our concerns, here are yours, lets see how we could address them, there is still some time before Nov elections to at least discuss options 5/8
If, however the US will only produce demands with no interest in reciprocity, or even worse will only talk about China, it would mean there is no sense in the talks. We will know soon enough - everything is leaked these days. 6/8
If the Trump admin is not serious, you can kick the can down the road and wait for US elections. If the president is reelected, it’s hard to see why the admin would change its course. So we’ll probably see more of the same 7/8
If Biden is elected, there will probably be a NST extension, but no substantial talks on other issues until the new administration is formed (sometime in the late 2021 or possibly later) 8/8
