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Unlike Mr. Garnaut, Im not an expert on Xi Jinping thinking or his secret plotting to rule the world. So I can only judge the Xi vs Stalin analogy by actions, not intentions/thoughts. To date, based on actions, this historical analogy distorts more than it illuminates. https://twitter.com/niubi/status/1287515088241545216
First, the Soviet political system at the beginning of the Cold War (that's the analogy of choice these days) was way more totalitarian than the Chinese political system today. The CCP governs as an oppressive dictatorship, complete with camps in Xinjiang. But it's not Stalinism.
Second, of course, the Chinese economy is much more open, market-oriented, and integrated in the global economy than the Soviet command economy was in 1946/47/48 (or whenever you believe the Cold War began. I personally like 1917, but that's not very conventional.)
Third, Stalin did not just talk about exporting communism around the world (which allegedly Xi also talks about, but Im no expert). He did it, with the Red Army in eastern Europe, with covert assistance in Greece & other countries, aid to the CCP & with proxies in Korea in 1950.
Has Xi orchestrated the overthrow of any regime and installed a Marxist-Leninist-Maoist regime? Hong Kong comes closest, but of course sovereignty questions cloud this analogy regarding this tragic regime change unfolding right now.
After dissolving the Comintern in 1943 while we fought together in WWII, Stalin recreated the Cominform in 1947. The aim was to foment communist revolution worldwide. The CCP's United Front seems like a very weak equivalent, but here I'd like to learn more from experts.
After allying with the US/UK in WWII, Stalin gave a major speech in March 1946 reaffirming the incompatibility of communism and capitalism. The fight was back on. I've read many Xi's speeches (albeit all in English). Xi has never said anything in public even close to Stalin.
Maybe Xi believes it, but doesnt say it, Ill concede. But again, unlike real scholars of Xi & the CCP, I can only measure/witness actions, not make useful judgements about intentions. (However, when comparing Xi to Stalin, I don't think NSA O'Brien knows more than I do!)
After Stalin installed a communist dictatorship in Hungary in 1947 & staged a coup against a Czechoslovakia democratic government in 1948, blockaded Berlin in 48, and then NK invasion of South Korea in 1950, Truman et al not surprisingly & rightly mobilized to contain communism.
But the US also overreacted and oversimplified, seeing every leftist/national liberation movement in the world as our enemy that had to stopped no matter what (including American leftists, aka McCarthyism).
As NSC-68 stated, "a defeat of free institutions anywhere is a defeat everywhere."
I worry we could repeat these same mistakes by believing that Xi is Stalin. Maybe Xi will become Stalin, but the CCP is not yet occupying foreign countries & not overthrowing regimes. & if they are actually trying promote Marxism-Leninism-Maoism, they are really bad it !
Is the spread of Huawei anywhere, a threat to democracy everywhere? In UK, ok. Rwanda? Is a BRI project anywhere a defeat for democracy everywhere? In some countries, yes. But all countries? Should we really be worried about democracy in Italy or Ghana falling because of BRI?
Oh, & for those claiming that Xi is Stalin's heir, there's that little inconvenient fact about the Sino-Soviet split from nearly 70 years ago ! https://www.amazon.com/Shadow-Cold-War-Sino-Soviet-Competition/dp/1469623765
I see our struggle with China (& Russia & Iran) in not just power terms, but also ideological terms - it's a fight between liberalism vs liberalism or democracy vs. autocracy. My views on this fight are clear (I'm banned from traveling to Russia & Iran.) https://www.amazon.com/Advancing-Democracy-Abroad-Politics-Economics/dp/1442201118
But I want to win. I want the US and the free world to develop a long-term, comprehensive strategy for containing, deterring, and sometimes engaging the CCP & the Chinese people to prevail over the century-long struggle at hand. False analogies from the Cold War hurt that effort
Those invoking the Cold War to illuminate our current relations with China might want to dig a little deeper into that history. We did some very smart things that we're not doing now (ie nurturing allies). We made some huge mistakes that should not be repeated (ie Vietnam).
And by reexamined that actual history, we will also learn that many dimensions of US-China relations today have nothing to do with the Cold War-- some of these new dimensions are less challenging than the Cold War; some of them are more challenging.
Its complicated, requiring less Manichean sweeping black & white generalizations and more nuance. Ok, Im ready to debate, Mr. Garnaut ! :)
Nota Bene: to what extent current Chinese foreign policy reflects CCP aspirations versus Xi aspirations is also an important question. In Stalin's time, there was no distinction. In Khrushchev's time, there was a distinction, so much so that that the CPSU tossed him in 1964.
