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Darren Waller Regression; A Thread:
Waller, a 2019 breakout TE, is currently being drafted in dynasty start-up's as the TE5 with an ADP of 57.26. I believe this is drastically high for a player in his situation and I'll explain why.
Waller, a 2019 breakout TE, is currently being drafted in dynasty start-up's as the TE5 with an ADP of 57.26. I believe this is drastically high for a player in his situation and I'll explain why.
First off, Waller is older than most would think. Due to off field issues he has quietly been in the league since 2015 and is now 27.9 years old (3rd oldest TE in the top 10 ADP).
Second, he only has 1 year of production in the NFL. Granted the years prior were handicapped by off field issues but its still just a 16 game sample size, which concerns me.
Third, in this year of play, over 50% of his season's end yardage came from 31% of his games. With only 68 targets being vacated coming into '20 (most of which were from Washington and will be assumed by Bowden/Jacobs/Richard) and the addition of dynamic play makers like Ruggs...
and Edwards, the availability of targets is going to be thinner than ever reducing the possibility of those boom games. A loss in receptions and consequently, receiving yards, is deadly to a player like Waller whose success was predicated on........
being top 3 in both TGTs, RECs and REC Yards rather than TDs.
The argument could be made that Waller is due for a positive regression in the TD department to counter balance his depleted touches… But I just don't buy it which brings me to my fourth concern.
The argument could be made that Waller is due for a positive regression in the TD department to counter balance his depleted touches… But I just don't buy it which brings me to my fourth concern.
Waller had his chances in the RZ seeing 3 more targets within the 20 than his counterpart Foster Moreau yet caught 7 fewer balls. Moreau is the RZ weapon of the future in LV and proved it as a rookie.
Finally, LV will have a healthy Jacobs this season.......
Finally, LV will have a healthy Jacobs this season.......
A healthy Jacobs means more insistence on the run game which some might hypothesize will equal more efficiency in the passing game; however, Waller already produced a 78.3% catch rate with the 6th highest YAC/Rec… It doesn’t get much more efficient than that.
In conclusion, Waller’s age, small sample size, inconsistent production, inevitable reduction in both targets and rec yards and lack of RZ presence make him a hard pass for me.
