Thread by @thehowie, My hot take from weekend data in 1 thread (see below for [...]

My hot take from weekend data in 1 thread (see below for details):

Positive rate flat to trending lower; cases flat; hospitalizations are declining, from a near-record peak; deaths are continuing to climb.

Deaths will likely plateau around 7 - 8K/week before declining. 1/17

Our progress began in late June when various Governors & Mayors began to message about masks, slowed re-opening, & began pushing for more social distancing. (Testing has not been our savior due to delays in reporting and lack of capacity). 2/17 https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/06/30/covid-cases-states-pausing-reopening-plans-list/3284513001/

At least 22 states pause reopening or take new steps to limit the spread of COVID-19

States with rising COVID-19 cases, including Texas, Arizona and Florida, are pausing reopening, requiring masks or taking other steps. See the list.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/06/30/covid-cases-states-pausing-reopening-plans-list/3284513001/

Here are some notable dates
Arizona - June 29th - bars, gyms, theaters closed.
Texas - June 29 - 30; paused reopening; closed bars, Mask order on July 2.
Florida - in-person bar service suspended June 26
California - Suspended indoor activities various dates in June.

3/17

North Carolina - June 24th - slowed reopening and required masks.
South Carolina - July 11th - curfew for bars; Mask ordinances mostly since early July.
Mississippi - Mask Ordinances in most populous counties July 9th)

etc. 4/17

Florida - Bad,

(getting better).
Illinois - Bad,

(getting worse)
Texas - Bad,

Arizona - Moderate

North Carolina - Moderate

South Carolina - Bad

Alabama - Bad

Mississippi - Bad

California -Bad

Ohio - Moderate

(stable)
New York - Good

5/17

#Florida today
Lower hospitalizations, lower cases, lower positive rate.
? plateau in deaths (77 today). Median age of cases remains high (41)
6/17

#Illinois
Gradually increasing cases, positive rate (still low at 3.7%). Hospitalizations 1,394, down from yesterday, but up from one week earlier. Quietly concerning. 7/17

Will report on #Texas later, when data comes out, but through yesterday, Improvement in all parameters except deaths. 8/ 17

#Arizona continues to show all signs of improvement: positive rate now coming down below 20%, hospitalizations down a lot, cases down, deaths beginning to come down from plateau. Infections in Arizona clearly peaked in or around June 29th. 9/17

#NorthCarolina has been a step ahead of other southern states for a while and it remains a moderate outbreak, but improving with a positive rate around 7%
10/17

#SouthCarolina OTOH has been much worse, until the last few days when things have clearly stabilized/improved. Deaths are still building, however. 11/17

#Alabama looks to be improving of late, but positive rate is pretty close to 19% and deaths are still growing. 12/17

#Mississippi has positive rate over 20% and cases continue to grow. 13/17

#California appears to be finally turning the corner. SoCal definitely improving; NoCal MAY be approaching a plateau (but withholding judgment until Wednesday when I report again). Positive rate near 7%. Fatalities are growing. 14/17

#Ohio appears to be plateauing with a positive rate around 6%. 15/17

#NewYork
Will do more graphics later, but suffice it to say that NY positive rate is 1.0% today with one of the lowest number of new cases reported today. 16/17

Some combination of active government shutdowns, fear, & local/state ordinances (social distancing/masks) work to reduce cases &, ultimately, deaths. Testing helps but has been less available last few weeks. Let's listen to science & not wander aimlessly toward death. 17/17

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