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Here's what my rolling average spits out with this poll added:
(This is Newshub's own seat reporting, just in half-pie form for visualization:)
Party vote analysis for pollwatch:
No graphic for this poll as with 100% Labour Majority Government chance, nobody wants to stare at the Red Ring of Death.
Medium/former medium parties threshold odds:
Greens over threshold: 89.7%
ACT under: 99.9%
NZF under: 100%
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No graphic for this poll as with 100% Labour Majority Government chance, nobody wants to stare at the Red Ring of Death.
Medium/former medium parties threshold odds:
Greens over threshold: 89.7%
ACT under: 99.9%
NZF under: 100%
#nzpol #nzpoll
The Party Vote analysis, as usual, is a monte carlo simulation based on random distortion within the statistical distribution around the margin of error. I run 2,000 purely random simulations. Here's the trend since inception, based on who chooses the govt:
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Electorate shift analysis for Reid Research poll fieldwork completed 2020-07-24:
Labour: 38 seats
National: 32 seats
NZF: 1 seat
ACT: 1 seat
This is the most accurate part of the model and the real point of running it.
Labour: 38 seats
National: 32 seats
NZF: 1 seat
ACT: 1 seat
This is the most accurate part of the model and the real point of running it.
Model calls:
Auckland Central: Labour (+6.9% margin)
East Coast: Labour (+0.04%)
Hutt South: Labour (+9.5%)
Maungakiekie: Labour (+5.6%)
Nelson: Labour (+0.4%)
Northland: NZF (+1.6%)
Takanini: Labour (based on PV leader)
Wairarapa: Labour (+4%)
Whanganui: Labour (+7.8%)
Auckland Central: Labour (+6.9% margin)
East Coast: Labour (+0.04%)
Hutt South: Labour (+9.5%)
Maungakiekie: Labour (+5.6%)
Nelson: Labour (+0.4%)
Northland: NZF (+1.6%)
Takanini: Labour (based on PV leader)
Wairarapa: Labour (+4%)
Whanganui: Labour (+7.8%)
In from National list:
Nobody
Expected National losses: (based on Caucus rank)
3 - Paul Goldsmith
7 - Chris Mishop
12 - Michael Woodhouse
13 - Nicola Willis
16 - Melissa Lee
18 - Nick Smith
19 - Alfred Ngaro
24 - Kanwaljit Singth Bakshi
30 - Parmjeet Parmar
31 - Brett Hudson
...
Nobody
Expected National losses: (based on Caucus rank)
3 - Paul Goldsmith
7 - Chris Mishop
12 - Michael Woodhouse
13 - Nicola Willis
16 - Melissa Lee
18 - Nick Smith
19 - Alfred Ngaro
24 - Kanwaljit Singth Bakshi
30 - Parmjeet Parmar
31 - Brett Hudson
...
...
34 - Jo Hayes
39 - Maureen Pugh
41 - Agnes Loheni
42 - Paula Garcia
43 - Bala Beeram
44 - Catherine Chu
47 - David Patterson
48 - Hamish Campbell
50 - Katie Nimon
51 - Liam Kernaghan
52 - Lincoln Platt
53 - Lisa Whyte
54 - Mark Crofskey
55 - Mike Butterick
...
34 - Jo Hayes
39 - Maureen Pugh
41 - Agnes Loheni
42 - Paula Garcia
43 - Bala Beeram
44 - Catherine Chu
47 - David Patterson
48 - Hamish Campbell
50 - Katie Nimon
51 - Liam Kernaghan
52 - Lincoln Platt
53 - Lisa Whyte
54 - Mark Crofskey
55 - Mike Butterick
...
57 - Nuwi Samarakone
59 - Rima Nakhle
63 - William Wood
59 - Rima Nakhle
63 - William Wood
In from Labour List:
7 - Andrew Little
9 - David Parker
11 - Trevor Mallard
15 - Kris Faafoi
17 - Ayesha Verrall
19 - Willie Jackson
20 - Aupito William Sio
22 - Vanushi Walters
27 - Louisa Wall
30 - Camilla Belich
32 - Jan Tinetti
34 - Marja Lubeck
35 - Angie Warren-Clark
...
7 - Andrew Little
9 - David Parker
11 - Trevor Mallard
15 - Kris Faafoi
17 - Ayesha Verrall
19 - Willie Jackson
20 - Aupito William Sio
22 - Vanushi Walters
27 - Louisa Wall
30 - Camilla Belich
32 - Jan Tinetti
34 - Marja Lubeck
35 - Angie Warren-Clark
...
...
36 - Willow-Jean Prime
38 - Naisi Chen
39 - Jo Luxton
40 - Jamie Strange
41 - Liz Craig
42 - Ibrahim Omer
43 - Duncan Webb
44 - Anahila Kanongata'a-Suisuiki
46 - Rachel Brooking
50 - Angela Roberts
51 - Shanan Halbert
54 - Lemauga Lydia Sosene
56 - Dan Rosewarne
...
36 - Willow-Jean Prime
38 - Naisi Chen
39 - Jo Luxton
40 - Jamie Strange
41 - Liz Craig
42 - Ibrahim Omer
43 - Duncan Webb
44 - Anahila Kanongata'a-Suisuiki
46 - Rachel Brooking
50 - Angela Roberts
51 - Shanan Halbert
54 - Lemauga Lydia Sosene
56 - Dan Rosewarne
...
...
60 - Soraya Peke-Mason
61 - Lotu Fuli
62 - Sarah Pallett
63 - Gaurav Sharma
64 - Emily Henderson
65 - Terisa Ngobi
66 - Kurt Taogaga
67 - Kerrin Leoni
68 - Reuben Davidson
69 - Zahra Hussaini
70 - Janet Holborow
71 - Romy Udanga
72 - Ala' Al-Bustanji
60 - Soraya Peke-Mason
61 - Lotu Fuli
62 - Sarah Pallett
63 - Gaurav Sharma
64 - Emily Henderson
65 - Terisa Ngobi
66 - Kurt Taogaga
67 - Kerrin Leoni
68 - Reuben Davidson
69 - Zahra Hussaini
70 - Janet Holborow
71 - Romy Udanga
72 - Ala' Al-Bustanji
When adjusting for NZF winning Northland, there are some slight differences:
National: 32 seats (1 overhang)
Labour: 76 (Ala' Al-Bustanji out)
NZF: 2 (Jones + Winston in)
Greens: 7 (NC)
ACT: 4 (NC)
Total seats: 121
National: 32 seats (1 overhang)
Labour: 76 (Ala' Al-Bustanji out)
NZF: 2 (Jones + Winston in)
Greens: 7 (NC)
ACT: 4 (NC)
Total seats: 121
I'm informed Taogaga is not contesting the list, so Ala' Al-Bustanji would be back in, and if NZF loses Northland, we'd expect to see Glen Bennett in.
Note this has Labour polling very close to the end of its list now, with only 10 candidates to spare.
Is up on The Standard in blog form for those who find tweet threads confusing:
https://thestandard.org.nz/pollwatch-reid-research-poll-completed-2020-07-24/
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https://thestandard.org.nz/pollwatch-reid-research-poll-completed-2020-07-24/
#nzpol #nzpoll
