1) Since Quebec unveiled a preliminary plan in June to reopen schools this September, the government has not updated it, causing anxiety among parents and teachers as the number of #COVID19 cases rises in the province. In this thread, I will explain why I’m giving Quebec an F.

2) Much of the debate surrounding reopening schools has focused on judging the risks of children catching the #coronavirus and falling ill. That debate misses the key point of preparing the ideal conditions for reopening schools, because children can’t stay at home indefinitely.

3) When jurisdictions decided to reopen in the #pandemic after lockdowns, they had to meet certain conditions, like a continuous drop in #COVID19 cases and hospitalizations. The same logic must be applied to reopening schools. If not, schools will become sources of outbreaks.

4) Israel, which had controlled the pandemic well initially, reopened kindergarten to Grade 12 May 17, while lifting restrictions on bars and gatherings. This caused community transmission, as well as a huge outbreak in a Jerusalem high school, in which 250 people were infected.

5) Since then, at least 1,334 students and 691 staff have contracted COVID-19 in Israel. At least 125 schools and 258 kindergartens had to close because of those outbreaks. Certainly, the decision to reopen bars and allow large gatherings contributed to this problem.

6) Jurisdictions that reopened schools with few or no outbreaks afterward did so while maintaining low community transmission of the #coronavirus. Unfortunately, Quebec is going about this backwards, and is setting the stage for school outbreaks this fall.

7) Premier @francoislegault has not only reopened bars, he has kept them open even after several major outbreaks linked to them. As I reported in my thread last night, two Montreal bars closed this week because of the #pandemic, even after new safety measures were introduced.

8) Making matters worse, Quebec will permit gatherings of 250 people on Aug. 1, even though the province is now reporting outbreaks in many different settings amid a resurgence in #COVID19 cases. On Saturday, the province posted 171 new cases, up from 163 Friday.

9) Montreal declared 85 cases Saturday, more than four times the number in early July. Please see the orange line in the chart below. The resurgence in the city has coincided with outbreaks in bars, and a rising positive test rate. It’s not simply because Quebec is testing more.

10) Since the government hasn’t update its school reopening plan despite the #COVID resurgence, here are five recommendations (or pre-conditions) of my own. First, close the bars and other venues where risk of transmission is high, and provide the owners with compensation.

11) Second, rescind the ill-advised decision to allow gatherings of up to 250 people, otherwise the number of #COVID cases will continue to rise less than a month before schools are to reopen. Third, boost resources for contact tracing to contain future outbreaks.

12) Fourth, observe a steady drop in cases for at least 14 days. If that condition is not met, the reopening of schools must be delayed. Aim to bring the numbers down to under 10 a day in Montreal. This was done only once in Montreal on July 6, when the city posted eight cases.

13) Fifth, update the preliminary school reopening plan to reflect the latest evidence and share it with the public as soon as possible. The detailed plan must address the questions of whether students should be tested for the #coronavirus and whether they should wear masks.

14) Time is of the essence. We can’t delay or tolerate the #COVID resurgence any longer. If authorities act now and follow all five conditions, Quebec will surely reduce its #COVID numbers, prevent school outbreaks in the fall and head off a possible second wave. End of thread.

15) Addendum: I’m indebted to @DrZoeHyde, an amazing epidemiologist, who has produced numerous evidence-based, ideologically-free Twitter threads on the subject of opening schools during the #pandemic.