I think have reached a point of no return for the commercial real estate market. Most operators have burned through their reserves and a return to normal business seems a long ways off. I’m seeing a significant increase in bank loan sales, which is the start of the dam breaking.

I predict the volume of loan sales will exponentiall increase in December of 2020, with banks clearing their books before year end. I suspect we will begin to see waves of commercial foreclosures middle of 2021. Much of the turmoil of a real estate correction happens outside of

the public eye as many of the loan sales will turn into deed in lieu of foreclosure in the early part of the correction. Later waves become more visible as the courts process foreclosures. But those foreclosures sometimes take years to work through the system depending on how

aggressively the foreclosure is pursued and what state it is in (judicial vs non-judicial FC). As banks begin to encounter loan losses they become less willing to lend and the downward spiral of prices gets reinforced by reductions in available credit. But I believe we are now

headed down this road and I don’t expect any significant intervention to prevent the impending commercial real estate correction. It feels to me like we have crossed the rubicon.