Read on Twitter
1/
Thread of today's (7-24) report on NC's requests for absentee by mail ballots.
Total requests so far among the reporting 81 (out of 100) counties: 87,293
Up 6,508 over yesterday.
This same day in 2016, requests were 18,206
2020 continues to be 4.8X ahead of 2016 same day
Thread of today's (7-24) report on NC's requests for absentee by mail ballots.
Total requests so far among the reporting 81 (out of 100) counties: 87,293
Up 6,508 over yesterday.
This same day in 2016, requests were 18,206
2020 continues to be 4.8X ahead of 2016 same day
2/
To give a stark display to 2020's surge vs. 2016, here's the same week by week totals for both years.
In requests for absentee by mail ballots: 2020 met 2016's totals in mid-May and has far-exceeded since.
2016's total requests was 231K
2020 is 38% of that total
#ncpol
To give a stark display to 2020's surge vs. 2016, here's the same week by week totals for both years.
In requests for absentee by mail ballots: 2020 met 2016's totals in mid-May and has far-exceeded since.
2016's total requests was 231K
2020 is 38% of that total
#ncpol
3/
At this point in 2016, party registration of NC's requested absentee by mail ballots was:
38% registered Democrat
37% reg Republican
25% reg Unaffiliated
Today (7-24):
54% reg Democrat
35% reg Unaffiliated
11% reg Republican
Party registrations & voter race data:
#ncpol
At this point in 2016, party registration of NC's requested absentee by mail ballots was:
38% registered Democrat
37% reg Republican
25% reg Unaffiliated
Today (7-24):
54% reg Democrat
35% reg Unaffiliated
11% reg Republican
Party registrations & voter race data:
#ncpol
4/
NC SBE groups the ABM requests by age ranges, and the pool of requests skews older (which is traditional in NC voting absentee by mail):
18-25 YO: 6%
26-40 YO: 15%
41-65 YO: 34%
66+ YO: 44%
Party registration & age groups:
#ncpol
NC SBE groups the ABM requests by age ranges, and the pool of requests skews older (which is traditional in NC voting absentee by mail):
18-25 YO: 6%
26-40 YO: 15%
41-65 YO: 34%
66+ YO: 44%
Party registration & age groups:
#ncpol
5/
Breakdown by gender within the 87K NC ABM requests so far (again, 81/100 counties reporting) continues from yesterday's percentages:
Female: 56%
Male: 39%
Undesignated/unreported by voter: 5%
Charts of parties by gender, and genders by parties:
#ncpol
Breakdown by gender within the 87K NC ABM requests so far (again, 81/100 counties reporting) continues from yesterday's percentages:
Female: 56%
Male: 39%
Undesignated/unreported by voter: 5%
Charts of parties by gender, and genders by parties:
#ncpol
6/
NC's 81 counties who reported the 87K requests were nearly 95% of all the 2016 ballot requests.
Using data previously reported to me from some of the missing counties, actual requests could be over 89K as we end this week's reporting.
#ncpol
NC's 81 counties who reported the 87K requests were nearly 95% of all the 2016 ballot requests.
Using data previously reported to me from some of the missing counties, actual requests could be over 89K as we end this week's reporting.
#ncpol
once ABM ballots are mailed (Sept. 4) & begin to return & processed, we will have a better analysis to report with actual voter information associated with those ballots 'accepted.'
Detailed voter information on ballot *requests* is not given (due to 2018 NC 9th CD).
#ncpol
Detailed voter information on ballot *requests* is not given (due to 2018 NC 9th CD).
#ncpol
As a PSA: NC absentee by mail ballots can be requested via a form found here: https://www.ncsbe.gov/Voting-Options/Absentee-Voting#RequestingAbsenteeBallot
And once ballots are mailed out (9/4), voters can return their ballot by the mail OR in-person at their county board of elections/early voting sites: https://www.ncsbe.gov/Voting-Options/Absentee-Voting#ReturningVotedBallot
And once ballots are mailed out (9/4), voters can return their ballot by the mail OR in-person at their county board of elections/early voting sites: https://www.ncsbe.gov/Voting-Options/Absentee-Voting#ReturningVotedBallot
9/9
For those interested, the data file is located at: https://dl.ncsbe.gov/index.html?prefix=ENRS/2020_11_03/
Important note: *add* the numbers in the final column, per the various breakdowns, to calculate the numbers.
It is *not* a 'line-entry' report.
#ncpol
For those interested, the data file is located at: https://dl.ncsbe.gov/index.html?prefix=ENRS/2020_11_03/
Important note: *add* the numbers in the final column, per the various breakdowns, to calculate the numbers.
It is *not* a 'line-entry' report.
#ncpol
We'll see what the report says tomorrow morning for today's requests, but will likely update Monday morning.
Thanks for following along--MB (aka @BowTiePolitics).
Thanks for following along--MB (aka @BowTiePolitics).
As an addendum, here are the 2016 Party #s vs. 2020 Party #s for NC's requested absentee by mail ballots:
2016 reg Republicans: 6,736
2020 reg Reps: 9,229
2016 reg Democrats: 6,868
2020 reg Dems: 46,856
2016 reg Unaffiliated: 4,546
2020 reg Unaff: 30,912
#ncpol
2016 reg Republicans: 6,736
2020 reg Reps: 9,229
2016 reg Democrats: 6,868
2020 reg Dems: 46,856
2016 reg Unaffiliated: 4,546
2020 reg Unaff: 30,912
#ncpol
One more analysis: the 81 reporting counties by urban, suburban, & rural classification (OMB designated http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/p/blog-page_5.html) & requests for absentee by mail ballots to date in 2016 & 2020:
Both Dem-dominated urban & GOP-dominated suburb are 5x ahead of 2016
#ncpol #ncvotes
Both Dem-dominated urban & GOP-dominated suburb are 5x ahead of 2016
#ncpol #ncvotes
