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The TAA Fallacy
“Even at £7.5m+, TAA will definitely be in my team next year, because he out-scores all MIDs/FWDs of the same price”.
Read on for my OPINION on why this is an example of fallacious (faulty) reasoning
#FPL #FPLCommunity
The TAA Fallacy
“Even at £7.5m+, TAA will definitely be in my team next year, because he out-scores all MIDs/FWDs of the same price”.
Read on for my OPINION on why this is an example of fallacious (faulty) reasoning
#FPL #FPLCommunity
1) I want to start by stating the obvious: TAA is one of the best FPL assets we have ever been graced with, and he will continue to be so next year. This thread is merely aimed at discussing the fallacious reasoning for why TAA will ‘definitely’ be in people’s teams next year.
2) Instead of claiming that TAA is worth having because he outscores £7.5m mids/fwds, the discussion instead should be, “which duo will score more points?”
TAA + £5.0m MID/FWD
or
£7.5m MID/FWD + £5.0m DEF
TAA + £5.0m MID/FWD
or
£7.5m MID/FWD + £5.0m DEF
3) That being, assuming a normal team set up, the inclusion of TAA (at £7.5m+) will likely mean that you will need to start one £5.0m MID/FWD in your team. I want to emphasise the word “likely” here, as there are ways around this - by spreading the funds 
4) Alteratively to including TAA in your team, you could set up with a 3-4-3 formation with no budget options in your front 7, and instead go cheap at the back. Therefore, it comes back to the question: TAA + budget attacker, or budget defender and TAA-price mid/fwd.
5) Firstly, let us consider this season, which duo scored more: 1) TAA and the highest scoring £5.0m mid/fwd, or, 2) the highest scoring £7.5m mid/fwd and the highest scoring £5.0m defender. In other words, is the inclusion of TAA at the expense of a mid/fwd worth it?
6) TAA this season has an astounding 209 points. The highest scoring £5.0m midfielder/attacker is Ayew on 127 points. This gives a total of 336 points for the optimal combination, not bad!
7) Alternatively, the highest scoring £7.5m midfielder is Martial with 194 points, and the highest scoring £5.0m defender is Stevens with 142 points, for a total of, thats right, 336 points! Therefore, both optimal combinations yielded exactly the same points total! Incredible!
8) A further point to consider is that there are a much larger quantity of good options below £5.0m in defence than there are in midfield and attack. This means that it is much easier to get the second combination (without TAA) correct than the first! See the evidence below!
9) To confirm this, I have looked at the number of £5.0m (or below) players that have scored above 120 points in each position category. To begin, the midfield. In midfield, ZERO £5.0m (or below) players have scored 120 points or more. The closest is Cantwell on 109 points!
10) In the FWD position, the only player that has reached the 120 points mark is the aforementioned Ayew on 127 points. The second place player is Greenwood on 101 points!
11) Finally, in the defensive positions, there are 9 players that have scored over 120 points! Stevens, Baldock, Lundstrum, Egan, Evans, Dunk, Aurier, Basham, and Söyüncü. A great return from the budget defensive options!
12) Therefore, this suggests that there are better budget options in defence, and as a result, it would be much easier to get the combination of a £7.5m mid/fwd and £5.0m defender correct, rather than TAA and a budget mid/forward. There just aren’t enough budget MID/FWD options!
13) However, I want to emphasise again that there are ways to get TAA in your team without the inclusion of a budget mid/fwd, by spreading funds across the attack (e.g. two or three £6.0m players), as many did at the start of the season (see my team below at the start).
14) That being said, if the inclusion of TAA in your team is at the cost of having to start a budget mid/fwd, I hope that you will now consider that the real question is TAA + budget mid/fwd vs. £7.5m mid/fwd + budget defender. This is opposed to just thinking that..
15) ...TAA will outscore similarly priced midfielders and attackers! I hope you enjoyed this thread (or more accurately, my ramblings) and I hope it made sense! Let me know what guys think. Am I massively mistaken (most probably)?
