Read on Twitter
Fascinating poll out today from @IpsosMORI on Right/Left identification. The poll provides further evidence that Right Wing support looks like a "Nike tick" by age (and Left Wing support the inverse) (1/8) https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-07/ipsos_mori_alignment_polling_tables_220720.pdf
This is a trend we spotted back at Populus in 2015. It's completely fascinating, and is normally obscured if polling is done by age buckets are too large and sample sizes too small unlike the poll below. (2/8)
I'm particularly interested in the Tory Nike Tick because its growing evidence that the relationship between age/voting isn't linear (as per chart below). The political cohort you graduate into really matters. Some generations are durably more right/left wing than others (3/8)
Analysing the latest age estimates by seat + party vote share (2019) the Tory Nike Tick is observed again. 27 year old somethings are the most left wing people (university affect?) materially more so, than the late teenager (4/8)
Ecological fallacy aside, there are a clutch of candidates explaining the Nike Tick; life stage, affects of university, Tuition fee rises, cohort affects (the environment entered into) media consumption, but I think this area needs a good deal more research (5/8)
The group of people who furthest away from the median voter isn't the very young, it's people aged 25-34. I often think the dislocation between mainstream culture vs election results is explained by the political isolation of people this age. (6/8)
In this @ukonward report I did with @NeilDotObrien + @Will_Tanner we found that on a host of issues voters aged 18-24 were economically significantly further to the right vs 25-34. (7/8) https://www.ukonward.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Onward-Generation-Why-online-PDF.pdf
Important to note on social issues there is an observable linear trend by age. The Younger you are the more socially liberal you are. I think this subtlety regarding interaction between age and economic vs social liberalism isn't entirely appreciated (8/8)
