Retail sales data for June, from the @ONS, a thread 👇. (All the hard work of @StatsRhian and team.)
Retail sales had a good June, growing around 14% compared to May, and we are almost back to the level we saw before the pandemic. (1/n)
But we are certainly not back to how things were. There are some huge changes within overall retails sales discussed below, all of which have happened in a few months. (2/n)
Food shops continue to perform strongly, reflecting the fact that cafes, restaurants and pubs were closed during this period. (3/n)
Online sales have also gone from strength to strength, with around 30% of sales being online in June. So businesses with a strong online presence are likely to have fared well. (4/n)
We also find that DIY/hardware sales have also held up well. Perhaps being at home more has made focused people’s minds on home improvements… (5/n)
But despite good overall retail sales, some areas are continuing to struggle in June. Clothing sales remain down by around 35% compared to February. (6/n)
More generally, in-shore shopping including on the high street continue to see much lower sales. Stores other than food shops saw sales around one-third below pre-pandemic levels. (7/n)
As an aside, the data also suggests that for physical shops, it is the high street and shopping centres as opposed to retail parks that have seen the biggest fall in footfall. (8/n)
Of course, restrictions on shopping were still place for at least part of this period. That said, the footfall data suggests a gradual pick on the high street, but still well below pre-pandemic levels. Perhaps people need to feel more confident before shopping in person. (9/n)
There is lots of uncertainty about what happens next. So we do not know whether or how much these patterns will unwind in future months. (10/n)
Overall, while retail sales are back close to their previous levels, there have been some winners (food and online) and some losers (clothing and the high street). (11/n)
We also need to put this in context of the overall economy. Retailing is only around 5% of the economic output, and does not include other consumer spending on cars, or restaurants, bars cinemas, etc. (12/n)
We will only see data on those wider consumer-facing industries as part of the regular GDP release on 12 August. (13/n)
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