Read on Twitter
1/ it’s been 2 weeks since I last posted an Oregon #COVID19 trend thread
It has continued to be a critical time nationwide, with daily case numbers for the USA (total) and individual states continuing to hit records
Let’s dive in closer to home… https://twitter.com/aoglasser/status/1281725147704000512
It has continued to be a critical time nationwide, with daily case numbers for the USA (total) and individual states continuing to hit records
Let’s dive in closer to home… https://twitter.com/aoglasser/status/1281725147704000512
2/ numbers in Oregon continue to increase
As of today:
15,713 confirmed/presumed cases
331 new cases today
273 deaths https://twitter.com/OHAOregon/status/1286394669262307328?s=20
As of today:
15,713 confirmed/presumed cases
331 new cases today
273 deaths https://twitter.com/OHAOregon/status/1286394669262307328?s=20
3/ when I last posted, it was several days after July 4th. Cases were notably rising going into the holiday weekend, and there had been a strong push cautioning people to celebrate via safe physical distancing
Increased transmission had been linked to Memorial Day events
so...
Increased transmission had been linked to Memorial Day events
so...
4/ some key timeline events:
7/1: masks required in indoor public spaces
7/15: masks required in outdoor public spaces where physical distancing isn’t possible
Tomorrow: new age range for masks and business restrictions— https://www.wweek.com/news/2020/07/22/gov-kate-brown-extends-mask-order-to-five-year-olds-and-limits-barroom-capacity-to-100/
7/1: masks required in indoor public spaces
7/15: masks required in outdoor public spaces where physical distancing isn’t possible
Tomorrow: new age range for masks and business restrictions— https://www.wweek.com/news/2020/07/22/gov-kate-brown-extends-mask-order-to-five-year-olds-and-limits-barroom-capacity-to-100/
5/ What has the trend line done since then?
we have continued to break records for number of cases, oscillating between 264-437 cases per day in last 2 weeks
We’ve now had > 400 cases/day:
436 (7/19)
437 (7/16)
409 (11)
https://public.tableau.com/profile/oregon.health.authority.covid.19#!/
we have continued to break records for number of cases, oscillating between 264-437 cases per day in last 2 weeks
We’ve now had > 400 cases/day:
436 (7/19)
437 (7/16)
409 (11)
https://public.tableau.com/profile/oregon.health.authority.covid.19#!/
6/ new cases increased by 26% the week of 7/13-19 compared to the week before
https://public.tableau.com/profile/oregon.health.authority.covid.19#!/
https://public.tableau.com/profile/oregon.health.authority.covid.19#!/
7/ deaths are also increasing:
25 deaths the week of 6/13-19
22 deaths the week before
We recently had 7 deaths reported in a day (tied for record)
: @nytimes
25 deaths the week of 6/13-19
22 deaths the week before
We recently had 7 deaths reported in a day (tied for record)
: @nytimes
8/ looking at is another way (and comparing to other states):
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
9/ what counties are being affected the most?
Let’s divide by metro and specific rural counties:
Total N of cases as of today:
Multnomah 3743
Washington 2352
Clackamas 1201
Marion 2277
Umatilla 1503
Malheur 539
Union 385
Jefferson 222
Morrow 212 https://govstatus.egov.com/OR-OHA-COVID-19
Let’s divide by metro and specific rural counties:
Total N of cases as of today:
Multnomah 3743
Washington 2352
Clackamas 1201
Marion 2277
Umatilla 1503
Malheur 539
Union 385
Jefferson 222
Morrow 212 https://govstatus.egov.com/OR-OHA-COVID-19
10/ The Portland metro area counties plus Marion Co outside Salem (the capital) continue to having the highest TOTAL numbers BUT the higher PER CAPITA numbers are occurring in now hard-hit Eastern Oregon
: @OHAOregon public tableau (link in earlier tweet in this thread)
: @OHAOregon public tableau (link in earlier tweet in this thread)
11/ much of the recent spread has been in Umatilla, Malheur, Jefferson, and Morrow Counties. Union county had an outbreak linked to a church several weeks ago
You can see here how recent % growth is higher than the Metro area counties
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-by-your-locations/
You can see here how recent % growth is higher than the Metro area counties
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-by-your-locations/
12/ this is another interesting way to look at where and when growth has happened
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/oregon-coronavirus-cases.html#map
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/oregon-coronavirus-cases.html#map
13/ from recent zip code data
4 of 6 w most weekly new cases east of the Cascade Mountains
~50% new cases from 21 zip codes https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/07/the-12-oregon-zip-codes-with-the-most-new-coronavirus-infections.html
4 of 6 w most weekly new cases east of the Cascade Mountains
~50% new cases from 21 zip codes https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/07/the-12-oregon-zip-codes-with-the-most-new-coronavirus-infections.html
14/ looking at it another way, you can see that several recent hot spots—I like how this graph clusters the growth within the large rural countries into even more concentrated areas
’s
Hot spots in last week
per capita
total cases
deaths
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/oregon-coronavirus-cases.html#map
’sHot spots in last weekper capitatotal casesdeathshttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/oregon-coronavirus-cases.html#map
15/ Rural Countries are getting overwhelmed in terms of their resources https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/07/rural-oregon-feeling-overwhelmed-by-coronavirus-we-really-need-help.html
16/ Oregon continues to see racial disparities:
About 3% of Oregon’s population is Black
About 12% of state population is Hispanic
About 3% of Oregon’s population is Black
About 12% of state population is Hispanic
17/ The Native American population is also being hit hard
“Warm Springs, with a population of around 5,000 people, has had 120 positive cases of COVID-19 as of July 17”
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/07/warm-springs-orders-2-week-quarantine-to-slow-coronavirus-spread-on-reservation.html
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/07/without-clean-water-warm-springs-struggles-to-curb-coronavirus-spread.html
“Warm Springs, with a population of around 5,000 people, has had 120 positive cases of COVID-19 as of July 17”
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/07/warm-springs-orders-2-week-quarantine-to-slow-coronavirus-spread-on-reservation.html
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/07/without-clean-water-warm-springs-struggles-to-curb-coronavirus-spread.html
18/ other demographic information:
Younger Oregonians continue to drive new infections
today: > 1/3rd of the new cases reported Thursday were among people aged 29 and below. Some 40% were between 30 and 49 years old.
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/07/coronavirus-in-oregon-331-new-cases-two-new-deaths.html
Younger Oregonians continue to drive new infections
today: > 1/3rd of the new cases reported Thursday were among people aged 29 and below. Some 40% were between 30 and 49 years old.
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/07/coronavirus-in-oregon-331-new-cases-two-new-deaths.html
19/ daily admissions still remain below March/April peaks despite total daily counts >3x higher
ED visits for covid-like illness (CLI) also remain low
Per the OHA:
Detection of higher proportion of cases via more 
testing
Actual in infection rates in younger Oregonians
ED visits for covid-like illness (CLI) also remain low
Per the OHA:
Detection of higher proportion of cases via more testingActual in infection rates in younger Oregonians
20/ the numbers are increasing not only because of more testing
The per positive has increased from 6.2 to 6.6%
The per positive has increased from 6.2 to 6.6%
21/ testing challenges persist around the state—and are being compounded in the recently hard hit rural counties, where long result times hinder contact tracing and efforts to decrease transmission https://www.opb.org/news/article/coronavirus-oregon-test-results-delay-covid-19/
22/ statewide, percentage of cases with followup initiated within 24 hours is decreasing
23/ and the percentage of cases that can be traced to a source remains below goal AND continues to increase
24/ where is transmission coming from?
from outbreaks
from “sporadic” cases (= diffuse community spread)
Per this week’s weekly report, household spread—attributed to better identification and isolation
https://www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/DISEASESCONDITIONS/DISEASESAZ/Emerging%20Respitory%20Infections/COVID-19-Weekly-Report-2020-07-22-FINAL.pdf
from outbreaks from “sporadic” cases (= diffuse community spread)Per this week’s weekly report,
household spread—attributed to better identification and isolationhttps://www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/DISEASESCONDITIONS/DISEASESAZ/Emerging%20Respitory%20Infections/COVID-19-Weekly-Report-2020-07-22-FINAL.pdf
25/ New modeling out today:
If transmission:
Stable = new daily infections over 4 weeks to 1600/day
10% = 600/day
10% = 2300/day
(fraction of new cases formally dx via testing)
This “pessimistic” model better than last one (7300 cases/day)
https://www.oregon.gov/oha/ERD/Pages/Oregon-reports-331-new-confirmed-presumptive-COVID-19-cases-2-new-deaths.aspx
If transmission:
Stable = new daily infections
over 4 weeks to 1600/day 10% = 600/day 10% = 2300/day(fraction of new cases formally dx via testing)
This “pessimistic” model better than last one (7300 cases/day)
https://www.oregon.gov/oha/ERD/Pages/Oregon-reports-331-new-confirmed-presumptive-COVID-19-cases-2-new-deaths.aspx
26/ the lesson from @OHAOregon
“continue to wear face coverings, stay six feet apart and limit the size of social gatherings” https://twitter.com/ohaoregon/status/1286395359359635463?s=21
“continue to wear face coverings, stay six feet apart and limit the size of social gatherings” https://twitter.com/ohaoregon/status/1286395359359635463?s=21
27/ @OHAOregon also just announced a new testing locator website, in English and Spanish
https://govstatus.egov.com/or-oha-covid-19-testing
https://govstatus.egov.com/or-oha-pruebas-de-covid-19
https://govstatus.egov.com/or-oha-covid-19-testing
https://govstatus.egov.com/or-oha-pruebas-de-covid-19
FIN/ in conclusion, the COVID situation is active
Current events in Portland itself are also actively evolving with protests against overstep of federal authority
The PDX MCATs have been cancelled twice
let’s navigate this fragile ice as a community
https://www.wweek.com/news/2020/07/22/gov-kate-brown-extends-mask-order-to-five-year-olds-and-limits-barroom-capacity-to-100/
Current events in Portland itself are also actively evolving with protests against overstep of federal authority
The PDX MCATs have been cancelled twice
let’s navigate this fragile ice as a community
https://www.wweek.com/news/2020/07/22/gov-kate-brown-extends-mask-order-to-five-year-olds-and-limits-barroom-capacity-to-100/