Ok friends, we need to have a discussion about how to avoid spreading Covid this holiday weekend. We had surges after Memorial Day and July 4th and we have to do better this time. But first some good news. Utah had the lowest transmission rate in the country this week! 1/

So let’s discuss a little science and then a couple stories. You’re probably familiar with the R0 values by now—or the number of infections stemming from a single case. An R0 below one is good and means infections are declining. 2/ https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/europe/coronavirus-R0-explainer.amp.html

Conversely, if every infected person infects 2 or 3 or 4 people, then things get bad. The biggest challenge with this virus is that you are incredibly contagious a day or 2 before you get symptoms—which is why mask wearing is so much more important. But you know this already. 3/

So let’s talk about where people are getting infected. As you can see from the data below, family and social situations are still by far the greatest risks...which explains why we see surges during holidays. 4/

So here are a couple real stories of people I know well. A friend’s family had a baby shower. They only invited extended family. 6 siblings and kids. About 25 altogether. Everyone was healthy. They were inside, no masks. They had food and chatted for a couple hours. 5/

The next day, one sibling had a fever. By the end of the week 8 people tested positive. Fortunately they have all recovered, but some had very serious symptoms. And 1 person infecting 8 is obviously no bueno. Fortunately those 8 quarantined and didn’t infect anyone else. 6/

The next story is a colleague who tested positive. Just before becoming symptomatic he had been in several meetings and likely exposed at least 20 coworkers. The difference? He wore a mask in every meeting and physically distanced when possible. All 20 people tested negative. 7/

One person infecting 8 others in unsustainable. With those types of outbreaks we quickly overwhelm our healthcare system and more people die. And when that happens the economy shuts down. (Read this thread from Mississippi which is a little smaller than Utah): 8/ https://twitter.com/tatereeves/status/1286103256389779457

Conversely, one person infecting 0? That’s how we beat this thing. So this weekend, we need to constantly evaluate risk. Just assume everyone has it and remember: Outside is always better than inside. Shorter is always better than longer. Mask is always better than no mask. 9/

And if you’re going to be inside with people who are not your immediate family, please always wear a mask (even 6 feet apart). The data coming out of Salt Lake County and other places is just too clear. Masks work. You won’t be perfect and neither am I, but keep trying. 10/

And for more details on specific activities and risk, this chart from the Texas Medical Association is helpful. So have fun this weekend, but please help us continue the good news of reduced cases, low transmission rates and lives saved. Happy Pioneer Day! /end