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How Ireland count Covid deaths is mostly atypical and leads to an overestimated death toll, relative to many places.
However, it was a responsible approach taken by all involved to count this way and they should be commended for having the nerve to do it.
However, it was a responsible approach taken by all involved to count this way and they should be commended for having the nerve to do it.
Excess deaths are the gold standard in assessing impact of the pandemic.
It's because excess deaths don't just count the direct consequences of Covid, they also capture indirect consequences - such as people dying of heart attack because they were too scared to go to hospital.
It's because excess deaths don't just count the direct consequences of Covid, they also capture indirect consequences - such as people dying of heart attack because they were too scared to go to hospital.
What you find in dozens of countries, such as Portugal, is a picture like this:
Excess deaths: 3,500
Covid deaths: 1,705
Unattributed deaths: 1,795
Those 1,795 unattributed in Portugal are dead, we can say that with certainty.
Died of what? Well, it shouldn't matter.
Excess deaths: 3,500
Covid deaths: 1,705
Unattributed deaths: 1,795
Those 1,795 unattributed in Portugal are dead, we can say that with certainty.
Died of what? Well, it shouldn't matter.
Reason it shouldn't matter is you don't get 3,500 more people dying than a normal year, without a global pandemic being responsible in some capacity.
Whether it's directly (covid19) or indirectly (fear of dialing 999) is inconsequential.
3,500 extra people don't randomly die.
Whether it's directly (covid19) or indirectly (fear of dialing 999) is inconsequential.
3,500 extra people don't randomly die.
The picture we have in Ireland is the opposite one.
Excess deaths: 1,200
Covid19 deaths: 1,763
Overattributed deaths: 563
In practical terms, 1,200 people died over the expected amount but we have 1,763 Covid deaths.
So we're left with a head-scratcher.
Excess deaths: 1,200
Covid19 deaths: 1,763
Overattributed deaths: 563
In practical terms, 1,200 people died over the expected amount but we have 1,763 Covid deaths.
So we're left with a head-scratcher.
If only 1,200 more died, how do we end up with 1,763?
1. Probably about 130 fewer people died of other causes (Flu, car crashes, workplace accidents) than normal.
2. We attributed Covid19 to about 400 people who were terminally ill to begin with and expected to die.
1. Probably about 130 fewer people died of other causes (Flu, car crashes, workplace accidents) than normal.
2. We attributed Covid19 to about 400 people who were terminally ill to begin with and expected to die.
Our method of counting is actually (to the inch) what WHO recommended.
It's just most countries said "sod that, we're not putting down a 105-year-old with stage 5 cancer as Covid".
That's exactly what we did in Ireland btw - the oldest person whose death we counted was 105.
It's just most countries said "sod that, we're not putting down a 105-year-old with stage 5 cancer as Covid".
That's exactly what we did in Ireland btw - the oldest person whose death we counted was 105.
Whereas the Russians took a diametrically opposite approach. They conducted postmortems on every death and only attributed Covid if it was provably the cause of death.
Russia:
Cases: 795,038
Deaths: 12,892
That's ok I guess, and makes Putin happy...
Russia:
Cases: 795,038
Deaths: 12,892
That's ok I guess, and makes Putin happy...
...but that approach isn't measuring the impact of a pandemic on society, it's measuring the lethality of Covid19 in people with few underlying problems.
Russians have way more dead, they just slapped them down as cancer.
It's not satisfactory and it's a bit of a cop-out.
Russians have way more dead, they just slapped them down as cancer.
It's not satisfactory and it's a bit of a cop-out.
We measured the impact of the pandemic well in Ireland.
We may be left with an artificially high death toll, but that's far better than massaging the numbers.
It's brave to count like we did because it makes you look crap compared to countries counting very selectively.
We may be left with an artificially high death toll, but that's far better than massaging the numbers.
It's brave to count like we did because it makes you look crap compared to countries counting very selectively.
If we counted like Portugal, here's what our death toll would look like:
Ireland: 578 deaths.
If we counted like Russia:
Ireland: 391 deaths.
Now, I'm sure both of those would would look far better than 1,763 and be more pleasing for politicians.
Ireland: 578 deaths.
If we counted like Russia:
Ireland: 391 deaths.
Now, I'm sure both of those would would look far better than 1,763 and be more pleasing for politicians.
Instead, we went with the one counting method guaranteed to make us look as crap as possible.
But as a result of that, we have one of the most accurate pictures anywhere of the impact of this pandemic on Irish families.
That's commendable.
But as a result of that, we have one of the most accurate pictures anywhere of the impact of this pandemic on Irish families.
That's commendable.
