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Pubs in Prague and Czechia have been open since May and haven't been linked to superspreading events - until now.
The story is getting attn bc the carrier is "a young woman" who "infected soccer players", but its significance is much broader. /THREAD https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-czech-soccer/soccer-floorball-players-among-infected-as-68-test-positive-in-prague-club-covid-19-outbreak-idUSKCN24N1K2
The story is getting attn bc the carrier is "a young woman" who "infected soccer players", but its significance is much broader. /THREAD https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-czech-soccer/soccer-floorball-players-among-infected-as-68-test-positive-in-prague-club-covid-19-outbreak-idUSKCN24N1K2
Czechia had few cases coming out of lockdown in April/May but has seen an uptick in late May/June. Authorities insisted it was a localized outbreak, linked to a coal mine, and that most people w positive tests were young and asymptomatic https://www.miningmagazine.com/life-cycle-end-of-life-management/news/1390231/okd-closes-czech-coal-mines-over-covid-19-outbreak
Fast forward to mid July: there are now more active cases in CZ than in April.
The mining region reports community transmission. The regional public health office imposes anti-covid measures with immediate effect, effectively banning a music festival for 1k ppl w zero warning
The mining region reports community transmission. The regional public health office imposes anti-covid measures with immediate effect, effectively banning a music festival for 1k ppl w zero warning
A tug of war between the health minister and the public health office head follows, each accusing the other of miscommunication.
2k people demonstrate in front of the public health office https://news.expats.cz/weekly-czech-news/rally-protesting-against-lockdown-measures-in-ostrava/
2k people demonstrate in front of the public health office https://news.expats.cz/weekly-czech-news/rally-protesting-against-lockdown-measures-in-ostrava/
This illustrates how difficult implementing any new restrictions will be. In March, Czech population massively supported the lockdown and took pride in sewing and wearing facemasks; politicians could get away with daily changes to new rules. Now, not so much.
But most importantly, the mining outbreak (and the Prague nightclub story) can be seen as stress tests for CZ's "smart quarantine" (Test/Trace/Isolate). CZ scaled down testing after lifting lockdown, citing low transmission & therefore low need
The % of identified cases to tests has, accordingly, gone up with the new outbreak (the region carried out targeted testing of selected miners and their families but, as seen above, total # of tests hasn't increased immediately)
(source: https://onemocneni-aktualne.mzcr.cz/covid-19 )
(source: https://onemocneni-aktualne.mzcr.cz/covid-19 )
We have v little data on how effective contract tracing is & how is quarantine implemented. Prague public health office states families + only 120 other contacts were quarantined for the 68 nightclub cases.
@CERGE_EI researchers estimate that each identified COVID case lead to only 2.4 ppl in quarantine (in the hotspot region of Karvina, in June)
The contact tracing cell phone app is used by 270k ppl only
These are all obvs very low numbers https://nazory.aktualne.cz/komentare/tam-v-karvine-zpravy-ze-slezska-varuji-ze-si-koledujeme-o-dr/r~9bcc73a6bca711eaa7deac1f6b220ee8/?fbclid=IwAR2Yykx1S9uGCZRfyFrBDq8LkAiVEN3oYz-kcPEirsfeqpO590h3z8DyZXk
The contact tracing cell phone app is used by 270k ppl only
These are all obvs very low numbers https://nazory.aktualne.cz/komentare/tam-v-karvine-zpravy-ze-slezska-varuji-ze-si-koledujeme-o-dr/r~9bcc73a6bca711eaa7deac1f6b220ee8/?fbclid=IwAR2Yykx1S9uGCZRfyFrBDq8LkAiVEN3oYz-kcPEirsfeqpO590h3z8DyZXk
In sum, it looks like the test&trace isn't working well enough to prevent significant numbers of new transmissions 2+ months after re-opening, but renewed restrictions will be politically difficult.
(Note: there is now talk ab re-mandating masks indoors, like Austria just did.)
(Note: there is now talk ab re-mandating masks indoors, like Austria just did.)
PS: Czechia and other Central&Eastern European countries handled the 1st wave remarkably well by locking down early. This was surprising for a region with supposedly low "state capacity". Except: it's easy to just lock everything down & gain pop support by showing pics of Bergamo
The current surge in cases in the region suggest a different kind of capacity altogether is needed to live with the virus. (Sadly, for political scientists, it's prob the more traditional kind of "how similar are you to Norway" - which is not theoretically exciting at all.)
