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the COV math from asia/pac rim remains interesting.
if this is correct, then delhi, one of the world's densest cities, had about 23% COV antibody prevalence by late june.
yet there have been no major hospital issues nor many deaths. https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/covid-infected-and-cured-undetected-in-delhi/cid/1787002
if this is correct, then delhi, one of the world's densest cities, had about 23% COV antibody prevalence by late june.
yet there have been no major hospital issues nor many deaths. https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/covid-infected-and-cured-undetected-in-delhi/cid/1787002
3719 deaths on 4.5mm cases = 0.083% IFR and even looks significantly overstated as this is based on seroprevalence from late june and deaths are as of today, 8 wks later
deaths seem up in inida as a whole right now (possibly following the tropical flu season) but remain VERY low
deaths seem up in inida as a whole right now (possibly following the tropical flu season) but remain VERY low
current daily death rates are around 0.44 per million population
that compares to a peak of 51 in new york state, 4 per mm in texas, and 4 per million in a "success story" like germany
so, calling india a "new hotspot" looks premature.
"1/10th germany" is not scary territory
that compares to a peak of 51 in new york state, 4 per mm in texas, and 4 per million in a "success story" like germany
so, calling india a "new hotspot" looks premature.
"1/10th germany" is not scary territory
so what's going on?
why is fatality so low?
age is probably a factor. median age in india is 29 (vs 38 for US)
but i suspect the bigger issue is simply previous resistance.
no one on the pac rim or adjacent to china has high cov deaths. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1280212958392446977?s=20
why is fatality so low?
age is probably a factor. median age in india is 29 (vs 38 for US)
but i suspect the bigger issue is simply previous resistance.
no one on the pac rim or adjacent to china has high cov deaths. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1280212958392446977?s=20
and, while some of those countries are young, many are old as well and age is not strongly predictive among them.
there are just none that got high, or even medium deaths. all are low.
this seems to point toward strong previous resistance from exposure to sars like viruses.
there are just none that got high, or even medium deaths. all are low.
this seems to point toward strong previous resistance from exposure to sars like viruses.
this seems to be key:
resistance is widespread & the most effective resistance/mild cases came from diverse t-cell response that attacked the virus from a variety of angles
this would be most common in those with more prior exposure to similar pathogens https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1285558917033086982?s=20
resistance is widespread & the most effective resistance/mild cases came from diverse t-cell response that attacked the virus from a variety of angles
this would be most common in those with more prior exposure to similar pathogens https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1285558917033086982?s=20
obviously, things can change in the future, but so far this hypothesis looks to be exhibiting solid predictive value.
cov19 has been all over india, but severe cases have not.
i expect we're going to find the same all over the pac rim and east asia.
cov19 has been all over india, but severe cases have not.
i expect we're going to find the same all over the pac rim and east asia.
cov was everywhere, but so was prior resistance. this leads to an interesting issue with regard to density.
density helps spread cases. but it may also serve to inhibit deaths as it means that other similar viruses spread more previously and thus there is more resistance.
density helps spread cases. but it may also serve to inhibit deaths as it means that other similar viruses spread more previously and thus there is more resistance.
if this theory holds, we'll see big case counts and high seroprevalance in the dense asia cities, but it will lead to few hospitalizations and low IFR.
this will be interesting to track as more data emerges.
this will be interesting to track as more data emerges.
