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The latest "excess death" report from the SAMRC has come out, reporting up until 14 July 2020, and it's getting a fair amount of attention, but I think there is a big story in there which is being missed.
Find the report here: https://www.samrc.ac.za/reports/report-weekly-deaths-south-africa?bc=254
Find the report here: https://www.samrc.ac.za/reports/report-weekly-deaths-south-africa?bc=254
Firstly, I'd like to point out that I don't agree with the methodology of calculating the excess deaths from the lower bound rather than the original baseline, but THIS is not the story.
Secondly, no-one knows what is happening inside the data, but there are worrying signs
Secondly, no-one knows what is happening inside the data, but there are worrying signs
Before unpacking, I think everyone agrees that inside the excess deaths will look something like the image below (this is NOT proportional, just illustrative).
Let me unpack it.
I define "Official COVID Deaths" as those that are reported.
Let me unpack it.
I define "Official COVID Deaths" as those that are reported.
Some of these official COVID deaths would have happened anyone (the so-called "death with COVID" deaths). How many is impossible to tell at this point.
There will also be deaths happened from COVID which are NOT in the official numbers.
There will also be deaths happened from COVID which are NOT in the official numbers.
And then there will be additional deaths that are happening which have nothing to do with COVID. These would be deaths as a result of lockdown/"crowding out" of healthcare resources
For example, someone having a heart attack who otherwise would have had treatment.
For example, someone having a heart attack who otherwise would have had treatment.
Someone who would have survived with cancer treatment they didn't get. TB which may not have been a death had it been appropriately diagnosed and treated. Impacts on HIV and ARV adherence (although these should take longer to come through).
And hunger/poverty-related deaths.
And hunger/poverty-related deaths.
In the latest week of the report (7 July 2020 to 14 July 2020) the SAMRC observed 14,140 deaths from natural causes.
Relative to the original baseline, the expected deaths in that week was 8,918 deaths.
This leaves a gap of 5,222 excess deaths.
Relative to the original baseline, the expected deaths in that week was 8,918 deaths.
This leaves a gap of 5,222 excess deaths.
In that same week, there were 853 official COVID deaths leaving unexplained excess deaths of 4,369!
The relative size of this best illustrated below.
The relative size of this best illustrated below.
Now, let me restate clearly - nobody knows what is going on inside the yellow slice. Some will be COVID which was missed and some will be the "lockdown" deaths I described above.
I have tried to work out a conservative estimate of unofficial COVID deaths using.
I have tried to work out a conservative estimate of unofficial COVID deaths using.
Firstly, let's assume that all official COVID deaths are indeed excess deaths (i.e. there were no deaths in there that would have died anyway).
Secondly, let's assume we miss one extra COVID death for every official COVID death we have.
Secondly, let's assume we miss one extra COVID death for every official COVID death we have.
Given the quantity of testing we are currently doing, and our testing strategy (focussed on those more likely to be at risk), I find this assumption that we are missing THIS many COVID deaths fairly unlikely.
Yet, for this argument, conservatism is important.
Yet, for this argument, conservatism is important.
If we make this adjustment to COVID in the earlier chart, we are left with this picture. There are still over 3,500 additional unknown excess deaths.
If we follow this line of reasoning, it looks like we may have a reached a point where our interventions to help deal with COVID are killing possibly double the people than COVID itself.
This is a crisis and I fear it's going to worsen over the coming months and years.
This is a crisis and I fear it's going to worsen over the coming months and years.
I hope the decision-makers who are observing this data are paying attention. We live in a country with a significant disease burden at the best of times.
I believe the manufactured COVID fear has resulted in other very sick people avoiding life-saving treatment.
I believe the manufactured COVID fear has resulted in other very sick people avoiding life-saving treatment.
Focussing 100% of our efforts and attention to a single novel virus has the trade-off that we take the eye off the ball for the others. I suspect we are only at the beginning of this trend, since hunger doesn't kill immediately.
What can we do about this? It's heartbreaking
What can we do about this? It's heartbreaking
Sorry for the typos - I should have proof read first.
